Romney’s Lingering Troubles

Today on This Week (now with George Stephanopolous) George Will phrased the essence of what happened in South Carolina in a simplistic but accurate way. He said, “Mitt Romney’s problem is somehow his Romney-ness… there is something about him that is not connecting.”

The populist wing of the republican party wants a game changing candidate. They want someone who is going to change and challenge the system, not work within it. Romney’s brand is, at its essence, someone who smilingly plays the game and happily bends himself to the nature of that game he is playing. Romney still has an authenticity problem and it is at the core of everything that has happened in this race so far.

Too many are overlooking the obvious and getting the analysis somewhat wrong. I’ve seen too many lists about the “lessons” we all learned after South Carolina and they all include a “debates matter” point. Debates themselves do not intrinsically matter in the sense that voters care about per se debate performance. Their importance lies within the GOP electorate’s (now apparent) demand for an authentic candidate. Gingrich performs well because he makes politically risky statements, directly answers questions and does not sound like he is up there to please anyone but himself.

That is how you appear authentic.

Comments

  1. thomas says:

    I think that’s exactly correct. And while Romney’s wishy-washy corporatism may give him a fighting chance against Obama in the general, it doesn’t do him much good with his party right now.

    Romney isn’t connecting because that “authenticity” he would need is sarcasm and rage. He has clearly decided to abandon all of those Palin supporters that she left on the table, but the other candidates sure aren’t above them. Cain had a great run being their arm-waving crazypants, and now Gingrich is making the most of his turn. Romney just isn’t their candidate. He doesn’t feel he needs them and they, understandably, hate him. And if he has to make a serious bid for their support he’s going to have to become hot-tempered and crazy fast. And every Palinesque smart-aleck insult, every Limbaughesque table-pounding tantrum, every Hannityesque sneer he manages to produce will absolutely sink him against Obama. I have a feeling he’s just not going to take that chance.

  2. jay says:

    Thanks for the comment Thomas.

    What I did not mention is that the real battle here, for Romney, is not over authenticity. Romney is not going to win that. What Romney needs to win, to have a chance at the nomination, is the battle for electability. Because Gingrich has been able to retain both authenticity and electability (which Santorum, Cain, Bachmann and Perry all lacked) he has risen to the top. Romney has to focus on killing that which has made Gingrich successful – his perceived electability.

  3. Thomas says:

    I think there’s a near-universal consensus that Newt isn’t electable. Even Ann Coulter and Palin herself discuss his strategy as designed to align openly with the base against Romney’s de facto establishment imprimatur. The Tea Party wants somebody up against Mitt and Newt beat out Santorum for the honor.
    Romney’s challenge is to tap the anger if the radical right enough to secure the nomination but not enought to alienate the low-information centrists in the general. Newt is in with the hard right now and doesn’t have to worry about anything else but throwing bombs.

  4. jay says:

    Romney lost South Carolina because Gingrich convinced voters there that he was electable.

  5. thomas says:

    Or maybe he convinced them that Romney couldn’t win against Obama? Neither interpretation of the results is the necessary conclusion to come to, but either way the establishment will not get behind Gingrich, is what I’m saying, and without establishment support he is essentially unelectable to the presidency.

    In any event, as I predicted in my first comment, Romney got the hint, fired up the childishness of his rhetoric, and is surging in the polls. The more interesting question is: what will be his post-nomination stylistic strategy? Will he try to reclaim the moderate, managerial profile and go head-to-head with Obama’s cool composure? Or will he give the McCain-Palin red-meat-to-the-lunatic-fringe playbook another shot? Either way, good times await us all!

  6. jay says:

    I agree about Gingrich’s electability, but I think he was able to convince South Carolina that the republican party would need “contrast” in the general election.

    Interestingly, while Romney’s negativity has helped him in Florida’s polls it has hurt him in the national polls.

  7. thomas says:

    Oh, agreed – particular in the debates, Gingrich gave them exactly the sort of finger-wagging disgust that they want to press on Obama. The exit polls out of SC showed he scored best with people who put replacing Obama at the very top of their concerns — above the economy, above national security, above social issues, etc. — so this is a very motivated and angry group. So we’ll find out how important Romney feels this Obama-hating, Obama-fearing vote is nationally, how much independent and moderate support he’ll be required to sacrifice for their sake.

    It really is looking like this primary is telling us less about the specific candidates and more about the intractability of the GOP’s problem with its Tea Party insurgency. You wonder how much genuinely terrific Republican political talent has been sidelined simply by wanting to avoid the humiliating spectacle of reassuring the birthers or being patted on the head by Todd Palin.