I don’t like the most recent poll that shows Newt Gingrich as the front runner (with 28%). The PPP (Public Policy Polling) poll has some funky results that make me question whether they got a good sample of Republicans. For instance, it still has Herman Cain at 25%, which beats Romney at 18%.

While the PPP, and the CNN/OTS polls might speak to the momentum of Gingrich, I don’t think it is right to think that Gingrich is suddenly the frontrunner. The RCP average still has Romney in that position, as does the CNN poll. What is clear, however, is that Cain is slowing dying and Gingrich is the next “chosen one” of the tea party/religious right conservative wing of the Republican party. This is not all that surprising news. After the allegations of sexual harassment came out it was clear that Cain was not going to remain the conservative golden child for long. As I mentioned during the debate I live blogged, Gingrich was relatively well placed to take his place. Clearly that is what is happening. I said, “He’s [Gingrich] got everything to gain from this. If he can become the conservative flavor of the week, as a more realistic choice he can (maybe) become a contender.”

The real story here is the greater potential that Gingrich has compared to the other former “chosen ones” of the tea party/religious right conservatives. First it was Bachmann, then it was Perry, and up until most recently we had Cain. For each, it was a lack of substance and knowledge of national politics/policy that led to their downfalls. As a former professor, speaker of the house and with a Ph.D in History, Gingrich is arguably the candidate with the most experience in national politics/policy and he clearly has a wealth of knowledge. His answers in debates often make references to policy making’s inside baseball and demonstrate a real working knowledge of the issues facing congress. He does not have the weakness that took down his predecessors. Unlike Perry, he is also a solid debater with strong stage presence (and memory). However, Gingrich’s strength is also a weakness, as it takes a real policy wonk to even begin to understand some of Gingrich’s answers. He has been around too long to utilize the simplistic sloganeering that so propelled Cain. Gingrich will have to begin to take on some more approchable ways of communicating his policy during debates and in appearances if wants to get people to be excited about him.

The other major strength of Gingrich is his ability to attract establishment Republicans that are not in love with Romney but are turned off by the lack of substance of the other candidates. Indeed, Gingrich could unite the two mainstream wings of the party under one banner, which would give Romney a real challenge.

Gingrich has some great weaknesses as well. His long history in congress could be used against him. Gingrich also has his own history of personal scandal including accusations that he asked his wife for a divorce while she had cancer (probably not true), and the fact that he was having an affair during the Clinton era. He also has an infamous attitude of arrogance that makes him sound authoritative, but it also makes him exude an air of elitism that many of his conservative brethren will not like. Lastly, while his campaign’s initial flubs have defined his campaign thus far, it is unclear if they will be at all consequential in the weeks to come.

Gingrich has big problems that, if not addressed, could easily prevent him from fully realizing his potential in this race. However, they are not impossible fixes. Frankly, a very good campaign team that Gingrich actually respects could make him the last of the “chosen” and the next GOP nominee. This is apparently a legitimate problem for Gingrich, as his first foray into this election was explaining why virtually all of his senior staff abandoned ship before things even got started. In the coming weeks and months we shall see if Gingrich can together an effective team and if he can organize a campaign that has any logistical strength/operational legs to stand on whatsoever. However, I’m hesitant to say that his ability to do any of this is more than a longshot.