On October 14, I had a post about the probabilities assigned by Nate Silver to victories by four of the crazier Republican Senate candidates. Now that we are five days older and wiser, how does it look?

The 56% he had for Sharron Angle beating Harry Reid in Nevada has climbed to 62%.

Ken Buck in Colorado has inched down from 68% to 66%.

Joe Miller in Alaska slipped from 74% to 70%.

Rand Paul in Kentucky strengthened from 86% to 89%.

Not much room for optimism here at all.