When it comes to estimates of the BP spill rate, we have several new-and-improved developments today.
Up to now, the media has been consistently touting the official government estimate as 12,000 to 19,000 barrels, even though its expert panel, the Flow Rate Technical Group, had said its upper-end estimate was 25,000 barrels a day.
But now that BP says it is collecting 15,000 barrels a day, and oil continues to gush out from the leak at a fast and furious rate, the WSJ has taken a bold step forward:
Up to 25,000 barrels of oil a day have been leaking from the well, according to a government estimate. A move to cut the pipe last week to prepare for the cap was expected to increase the flow by 20%.
In one swift stroke, “12,000 to 19,000″ has turned into not just “up to 25,000″, but 20% more than that.
That’s progress, sure. But when you’re talking about the Deepwater Horizon spill rate, it really can’t be as simple as that, can it?
So it’s not just the terms used by the media to describe the previous estimate of the spill rate that are changing. The Coast Guard has its own hitherto-closely-guarded estimate (provenance unknown):
Salazar testified as another official said that BP may be able to contain all the oil coming from the leak once a second containment system is put in place in the next two to three weeks.
Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen said that once a retrofitted rig is added to BP’s containment efforts on June 14, BP will be able to capture up to 28,000 barrels a day. By July, the second containment system may be in place.
So by June 14, BP will be capturing 28,000 barrels a day, and that’s still not going to be all the oil, according to the Coast Guard.
And now that we have new and improved numbers flying around, as well as new and improved ways to describe old numbers, the Flow Rate Technical Group has decided to produce some new and improved numbers of its own:
The U.S. government plans to soon have a new estimate of the flow of oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico from the Deepwater Horizon disaster, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar told senators Wednesday.
[...]
An independent group headed by the director of the U.S. Geological Survey will hopefully have a new flow estimate “soon,” Salazar said. That new estimate will take into account the cut-off pipe.
Let’s hope it’s not based on a short snippet of BP-selected low-quality video like last time.
(And do stay tuned.)
*** Update, 3:09 p.m. ***
Jason Linkins reminds me that as recently as Sunday morning, Adm. Thad Allen was in tune with the Flow Rate Technical Group. He appeared on Fox News Sunday, and recited their estimate verbatim: “We estimate low end 12,000 barrels a day, to high 19,000 to 25,000 barrels a day.”
Some time in the last two days, he has come to embrace “more than 28,000 barrels”.
Previous posts:
June 7: The Spill Rate Estimate That Walks On Water Has Feet Of Clay
June 5: How Much Oil Would The Oil Spill Gush (If BP Could Gush Truth)?
June 1: The Long Arm Of The Stock Market
May 27: Quote Of The Day
May 26: Scenes From A Spill
May 24: How Retarded Can One Corporation Be?
May 18: BP’s Strategy Pays Off
May 17: On The Evolution Of The Deepwater Horizon Spill Rate Estimate