As of last night, we know who the very shy “I’m with Stupak!” group consists of. He has nine followers, one of whom is Republican Anh “Joseph” Cao of Louisiana. The eight Democrats are Marion Berry (Arkansas), Sanford Bishop (Georgia), Kathy Dahlkemper (Pennsylvania), Steve Driehaus (Ohio), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio), Daniel Lipinski (Illinois), Alan Mollohan (West Virginia), and Nick Rahall (West Virginia).

All eight of these Democratic Stupakers had voted for the original House bill in November, as did Stupak.

Cao had also voted Yes in November, but has already announced his firm intention “right now” to vote No this time around.

If you go with the Washington Post‘s “Who’s in play: House health-care whip count“, then here’s the bleak picture that unfolds:

We better start with the caveat that the WP does not seem to be updating their page over the weekend.

Also, don’t start climbing to the top of a very tall building right after you read the WP analysis, because the NYT analysis turns out a little different.

The NYT, by the way, is updating today, so their analysis is more up-to-date; their yes/no/undecided classification may also be more reliable.

By the WP‘s analysis, there are 45 undecideds, 37 of whom had voted Yes in November, with 8 voting No.

The WP tells us that if all the 45 undecideds vote the way they originally did, then the bill squeaks through 216-215, without a vote to spare.

The WP is showing Driehaus as a Yes. It’s not clear why, but let’s just accept that at face value, for now.

Stupak and his other seven Democratic Stupakers are all WP undecideds who had originally voted Yes. If all eight now choose to vote against the healthcare bill, that’s eight votes right there that have to be made up in order for the bill to pass.

That means that all eight of the undecideds who had originally voted No would now need to switch to a Yes in order for the bill to pass.

That’s a pretty uncomfortable factoid!

On the other hand, if you go with the NYT‘s “Democrats to Watch on the Health Care Vote“, then here’s how it unfolds:

As of 3 p.m. Eastern, they are showing 206 votes for the heathcare bill, with 21 undecided (all Democrats).

Six of the 21 had originally voted No, with 15 voting yes.

Stupak and seven Stupakers are part of that group of 15.

So, by the NYT‘s count, 7 non-Stupakers who had originally voted Yes are still undecided.

If they all revert to their original Yes vote, that brings us to 213 Yes votes.

Only three out of six undecideds who originally voted No have to be persuaded to switch to a Yes.

Not a terribly reassuring factoid, by any means, but still a huge improvement over the WP result.

And then there’s this: it’s not at all clear that Stupak’s seven Stupakers will, in fact, vote against the bill. For example, Kaptur may be leaning towards a Yes vote. And Pelosi is continuing to talk to Kathy Dahlkemper and Steve Driehaus. There may be some grounds for optimism there.

So it’s clear that it’s going to be a real squeaker, but there’s still some room for cautious optimism.

*** Update, 9:30 a.m., Sunday March 21 ***

The NYT now shows 209 Yes votes, with 15 undecided.

Four of the undecideds are non-Stupakers who voted Yes in November. If they vote Yes again — and, at this point, it will be a hell of a surprise if any of them don’t, I think — then only three more votes are needed. The Stupak political suicide squad at this point has seven members (Berry, Dahlkemper, Driehaus, Lipinski, Mollohan, Rahall, Stupak). And there are 4 undecideds who had voted No in November. The last three votes could come either from another Stupak defection or from flipping some of the four No-undecideds.

At this point, I’m willing to venture a small bet that the bill will pass.

(corrected 9:37 a.m.)

*** Update #2, 11:16 a.m., Sunday March 21 ***

One of the No-undecideds has flipped (Brian Baird, Washington); two have confirmed they will vote No (John Tanner and Lincoln Davis, both Tennessee). The NYT page is updated for Baird and Tanner, but not Davis.

After updating for Davis, it would show 210 Yes votes, 4 non-Stupak Yes-undecideds, 1 No-undecided and the 7-member Stupak political suicide squad.

Maintaining the assumption that the 4 non-Stupak Yes-undecideds will vote Yes, two more votes need to be squeezed out by flipping the last No-undecided or engineering some more Stupak defections.

*** Update #3, 11:30 a.m., Sunday March 21 ***

The list of Stupakers I have worked with above was taken from Steve Benen‘s blog. He seems to have revised the list, by dropping Marion Berry and Nick Rahall, and adding Jerry Costello of Illinois, Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota.

(I don’t know why, but what keeps coming to mind is the classic quote about blind men in a dark room groping for a black cat that isn’t even there.)

Accepting these changes at face value, the revised math is:
After updating for Davis, it would show 210 Yes votes, 3 non-Stupak Yes-undecideds, 1 No-undecided and the 8-member Stupak political suicide squad.

Maintaining the assumption that the 3 non-Stupak Yes-undecideds will vote Yes, three more votes still need to be squeezed out by flipping the last No-undecided or engineering some more Stupak defections.

*** Update #4, 1:20 p.m., Sunday March 21 ***

Stupak has folded:

It looks like it’s finally finished. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) hosted a 4 p.m. (ET) press conference — he didn’t cancel this time — and announced that Democrats “have an agreement,” struck with the White House and Speaker’s office.

Stupak said the breakthrough came as a result of an executive agreement from President Obama — which will apparently be signed after the legislation becomes law, and which Stupak says will maintain existing law.

More soon.

Update: White House officials are now saying they count 220 “yes” votes — four more than needed for passage.

*** Update #5, 1:51 p.m., Sunday March 21 ***

The NYT has updated its scoreboard to 216 votes, not 220.

At the time of my 11:16 a.m. update, they showed 210 Yes votes.

Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota — who was a Stupak ally as per my last classification — had announced himself to be a Yes well before Stupak’s 4 p.m. Eastern press conference.

The NYT switched Dahlkemper, Driehaus, Mollohan, Rahall and Stupak to Yes after the (redundant and purely face-saving) Presidential executive order agreement. All five were in my original Stupak list. Rahall was not in the revised list.

Marion Berry and Daniel Lipinski, who were on the original list, are still showing as undecided. In the revision, Berry had been dropped from the list, but Lipinski had been retained.