Oh, Joshie

Josh Marshall undersells it again:

So, in Matt’s [Yglesias, not me unfortunately] thinking, its not so much poor appointments, its why Obama pulled sitting senators Clinton & Salazar into his cabinet and — perhaps even more important — took a number of governors or ex-governors Napolitano, Sebelius & Vilsack, who were well positioned for senate runs, into his cabinet as well. Add to that the fact that Obama and Biden themselves opened up seats and youve got a decent number of senate seats in play. The further point Matt makes, and I think its a good one, is that its not simply that Napolitano, Sebelius and Vilsack might have won their races. Their running also would have created political pressure from the left that would have been a factor in the legislative battles going on today. Hindsight is 20/20. And a lot has changed in the last twelve months. But not necessarily that much that could not have been predicted.

Hindsight, WTF? Weak-ass caveats notwithstanding, it’s all much, much worse than this. Napolitano, Sebelius & Vilsack certainly could have thrown their respective hats in their respective rings, but that glosses over the real-world ramifications. First, the Napolitano and Sebelius appointments left behind Republican Governors in Arizona and Kansas. At the time they were appointed, John McCain had already given up his moderate sheen in the Presidential election, and was more than vulnerable to Napolitano in Arizona. In Kansas, Sam Brownback had already announced that he wouldn’t be running for another Senate term in 2010, a huge opening for Sebelius. Had Vilsack been in the Iowa Senate race, it would have been impossible for Chuck Grassley to almost single-handedley hold up heath care reform for months.

The political damage now and the opportunity cost in 2010 are one thing. But why did Obama cause this damage in the first place? None of the three could reasonably be considered experts in the areas for which they were tapped. Vilsack has agricultural experience from his time as Governor, but as far as I can tell, neither Napolitano nor Sebelius have any special expertise that would justify their selections when it lets two Senate seats and two Governorships slip out of reach. Absolutely none of this was unknown when Obama was making these decisions, yet he did it anyway. So a generous reading is that he repaid three early supporters with their own federal agencies. A less generous one would be that he doesn’t care about the partisan composition of the U.S. Senate. It’s also possible that both are true.

It is, however, impossible that hindsight has anything to do with it, Joshie.