Comments on: I’m Sensing a Pattern

By: matt

matt — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:52:58 +0000

i don’t see this as a sucker bet. i’m also not really worried even if i lose. i’m not sure $20 will buy a cup of coffee in 2012.

By: tom

tom — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:49:17 +0000

matt, you do poorly in sucker bets. you just entered into a sucker bet.

By: matt

matt — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:28:34 +0000

if torricelli was cruising to victory, he’d have kept running.

By: sarabeth

sarabeth — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:31:11 +0000

any late substitutions where the incumbent was not facing federal corruption charges (or embroiled in some other tawdry scandal)?

By: matt

matt — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:23:50 +0000

it’s not like there’s no precedent in NJ for late substitutions:

“A little over a year after he left office, Lautenberg was called upon again to run for the Senate again. This time, however, it was to replace incumbent Senator Bob Torricelli, who had won nomination for a second term in the June primary elections but was facing federal corruption charges and an uphill climb for reelection against Republican nominee Doug Forrester. “

By: sarabeth

sarabeth — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:16:22 +0000

Done!

I’m not so sure I believe that Obama would have sent a message in August (with less than 3 months to go for the election) that Corzine should drop out of the race.

Part of the problem is the credibility of an unnamed source. Part of it is the difference between:
a) what was actually said,
b) how it was interpreted by someone (but not necessarily everyone) on Corzine’s staff, and
c) how that interpretation was then paraphrased by Politico.

By: matt

matt — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:19:36 +0000

i will take that bet, ma’am.

as for slobbering, i’ve done none of that. if you can’t see the pattern, then you’re willfully blind.

i don’t care about your differentiators, the point remains that obama is bumbling his way through political minefields. i don’t care what you have or haven’t “compartmentalized.” the results are exactly the same, a politically tone-deaf president hamhandedly playing hack chicago politics. badly.

corzine’s race is this year, and he wasn’t (seriously) primaried, paterson’s is next year and he will be. so pardon me if i substitute approval and voter intent.

By: sarabeth

sarabeth — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:01:22 +0000

I’ve got $20 for both of you which says the leading Republican candidate in July 2012 will be neither Huckabee nor Romney.

By: DCeiver

DCeiver — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 18:54:56 +0000

I deal with a lot of Beltway-types who, like you, slobber all over an unnamed source. My read on the NJ race is a lot different (I say that in vain, since I know it would kill you to acknowledge that I have, at all times, compartmentalized the NY-Gov race as it’s own unique animal…I should probably just loan you the name “Deceiver,” shouldn’t I). In the first place, you have fewer alternatives to Corzine, certainly not one that immediately pops as a solid, progressive alternative. Secondly, Corzine’s inadequacies are not as glaring as Paterson’s (perhaps unfortunate, because neither are they as shallow.) Third, as any close observer of New Jersey races can attest, it’s a parochial phenomenon that the GOP candidate tends to fare well early, and fade late. And fourth, you conflate being “behind in the polls” with “voter approval rating.” This is a common mistake. Not one I made, though!

By the way, if Obama is trailing Huckabee by 7 points on 7/12, his bigger problem will be the fact that he’s trailing Romney by 12. Ta ta!