1115.org

The early reviews were positive, no doubt — and the phrase “game-changing moment” is being bandied around in some circles — but even after sleeping on it for two nights, it’s not clear to me that Obama’s speech on Wednesday night is really going to change very much.

A CNN poll conducted immediately after the speech right away showed support for “Obama’s health care plan” rising from 53% to 67%. Even though part of this increase is just a post-speech bump, the increase is still impressive. But is the higher support really going to change anything in Congress?

Those who were going to be swayed by public opinion have already have been supporting healthcare reform. Those who have had no qualms about repeatedly claiming that a majority of Americans oppose healthcare reform (i.e., practically the entire Republican congressional caucus) will continue to blithely peddle that lie. The media will continue to play “he said, she said, who knows?”, while disproportionately covering every angry delusional protest that comes down the pike.

Does Obama’s speech make it any more likely that Democrats will be able to muster 60 votes in the Senate to kill the Republican filibuster? Did it do anything to strengthen Olympia Snowe’s resolve? Did it inspire Susan Collins at all? Will it make Ben Nelson back off from his veiled threats of supporting the Republican filibuster?

Does Obama’s speech make it any more likely that Democrats will be able to muster 51 votes in the Senate to pass the bill? Or, more to the point, does it affect how much Democrats in the Senate will feel compelled to water down the bill in response to perceived difficulties in getting it passed?

Does it make it any more likely that the watered-down Senate bill will be able to fly in the House?

I’m not sure that I see any “yes” answer to any of those questions that doesn’t smack of wish-fulfillment fantasy.