Kevin Drum points out that, as we approach the end of the August recess, it is possible to take an optimistic view of the prospects for healthcare reform:

So that’s the optimistic view: the Fox/FreedomWorks crowd has created some great political theater, but underneath it all not a lot has changed. If Democrats can just take a deep breath after the trauma of being yelled at all summer, they’ll realize that the loons at their townhalls represented about one percent of their constituency; that the public still wants reform and will reward success; that the plans currently on the table are already pretty modest affairs; and then they’ll stick together as a caucus and vote for them. And that will be that.

Yes, if Democrats could be counted on to be sensible, that would be that. Too bad that any effort to be sanguine about the prospects for healthcare reform ends up sounding like a wish-fulfillment fantasy,

And let’s be clear about how many Democrats need to be able to exhibit sensible, rational behavior. All 59 Democrats in the Senate (plus Olympia Snowe), in order to overcome the filibuster. After that, it may be just 51 Democrats (possibly minus Olympia Snowe) to actually pass a reform bill, but it’s that requirement of unanimously sensible behavior that is the killer.

We need Ben Nelson to realize that loons at townhalls represent less than one percent of his constituency. We need Mary Landrieu to realize that the public still wants reform and will reward success. We need Kent Conrad to realize the plans currently on the table are already pretty modest affairs.

What’s more likely? That George W. Bush will fly off to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region this month and singlehandedly capture Osama bin Laden? Or that Nelson, Landrieu and Conrad will prove capable of simultaneously coming to these realizations?