The Map and After
by matt at 6:00 am on November 3rd, 2008 in 2008 Presidential, Obama Uber Alles, St. John McCain
That’s my prediction, a combination of actual poll-watching and gut feeling. I still have my doubts about PA, but losing there still puts Obama up 270-268. If this happens, even a 5 million popular vote win is going to be swept under the carpet in favor of “how close it really was.” But I don’t see any realistic path to victory for McCain at all.
All bullshit aside, go vote for Obama. After the primary was settled, my intention was never to make anyone stay home. Hell, even the people who have come to agree with me on Obama are still voting for him. Hope and faith I guess. But here’s the thing: democracy isn’t just about elections, it’s about governing as well. If you support Obama in the election, that’s your right. But it’s also your responsibility to make sure he governs in a way that makes sense. It should be about progressive change, not just change.
If he surprises me and is a President that speaks for me as opposed to a candidate that most certainly doesn’t, you can bet it all that I will vote for him in 4 years.
But what if I’m right? Will you go silent? Will you let him deal away what is important to you? Will you stand by as he fills his cabinet with Republicans? Will it be OK with you when he uses his opportunities to shape the Supreme Court with centrists who will then compromise with Scalia, Alito and Roberts for the next 20 years?
I’ll of course have more about this campaign and what I’ll be watching during the transition.
I’m interested in hearing your thoughts, both about the map and what comes next. If you’re one of the thousands of our silent readers, please speak up on this.
matt wrote:
Noted pollster and election expert JimC weighs in with his map:
Posted 03 Nov 2008 at 8:31 am ¶
cristian wrote:
The Iowa Eletronic Markets (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_quotes.html) are at 53-47 (with 90-10 for “winner-takes-all”) for Obama. The percentage split has barely moved in the last couple of weeks. From a market history point of view, how close is this to “certain” ?
Of course, the final results map might have its own symbolism, however, the most important thing, like you said, is seeing the expected “progressive changes”.
Out of the very long list, what would be your priorities – things you would like see foremost, and would be inclined to say ‘told you so’ if you didn’t?
Posted 03 Nov 2008 at 11:05 am ¶
matt wrote:
i don’t put a whole lot of stock in the online prediction markets, but it seems to be that the 10% discount is due to fear of “election irregularities.”
your question is a good one, and i will expand on this in a post after it’s over. but what i want to see is movement on healthcare beyond what obama’s plan calls for. i want to see as election reform. i want to see less money being flushed down the toilet on losing wars and more energy spent on diplomacy.
and above all, i want to see 3 solid progressives nominated to balance the nutjobs on the supreme court.
Posted 03 Nov 2008 at 11:36 am ¶
kiel wrote:
Word!
(Phrase! Sentence! Heck, whole paragraph!)
Posted 03 Nov 2008 at 9:22 pm ¶
jamie beth wrote:
i take HUGE exception to the fact that Jim C gives PA to McCain. i really, really hope that doesn’t happen. on matt’s map, every state in which i have ever lived goes blue. i like that idea much better.
Posted 03 Nov 2008 at 10:00 pm ¶
tom wrote:
I saw a bunch of anti-Obama posters in my neighborhood this morning. Unofficial “socialist”, “mccain 08 – hillary 12″, etc type joints. All my ventures in western PA outside of the city of Pittsburgh have encountered tons of McCain propaganda everywhere. I don’t think you can overestimate the level of racism in this state.
Posted 03 Nov 2008 at 11:01 pm ¶