1115.org

Andrew Sullivan:

As expected, one reason Proposition 8, stripping gay couples of marriage equality, is still viable in California is because of strong African-American support. Black Californians back the anti-gay measure by a margin of 20 points, 58 – 38, in the SUSA poll. No other ethnic group comes close to the level of opposition and black turnout is likely to be very high next month.

All this makes it vital, in my opinion, that Barack Obama strongly and unequivocally oppose Proposition 8 in California, rather than keeping mainly quiet as he has done so far. We need him to make an ad opposing it. This is a core test of whether gay Americans should back Obama as enthusiastically as they have in the last month. If he does not stand up for gay couples now, why should we believe he will when he is in office? And if black Americans are the critical bloc that helps kill civil rights for gays, that will not help deepen Obama’s governing coalition. It could tear it apart.
Memo to Obama: make an ad. Speak loudly. Defend equality. Defend it when it might actually lose you some votes. Show us you are not another Clinton.

Kevin Drum responds:

The argument against following Andrew’s advice is obvious and compelling: Obama looks like he has the election in the bag right now, so why take even a tiny chance of blowing it?
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In other words, I get it. But I agree with Andrew anyway. My biggest concern about Obama all along has been his almost preternatural caution, and while this has obviously served him well during the financial crisis of the past few weeks, it’s hard not to wonder when, if ever, he’s going to show a little more, um, audacity on selling a progressive agenda to the country. Right now, California progressives need some help on Prop 8, and he’s supposed to be our champion. So when are we going to see some leadership on this?

Plenty of people disagree with me about this. Better to play it safe for now, get elected, and then let big congressional majorities work their magic. Good things will follow. But I’m not so sure. I’ve got a broader piece on this topic coming up in the November issue of the magazine, but my main point is easy to summarize: in the end, congressional majorities aren’t enough. You need public opinion behind you too, and the only way to get that is by actively trying to mold public opinion. So far Obama hasn’t really tried to do that, and that’s troubling for the progressive movement. If he’s unwilling to take a few minor risks now, how likely is it that he’s going to be willing to take a few bigger risks if and when he’s elected?

To Andrew I say: It will never happen. The idea that Obama would consider risking a point or two in the polls before the election or a couple dollars worth of political capital afterwards on gay rights is ludicrous. Beyond that, he may be nominally against Prop 8, but he’s on record as being against gay marriage. Not only is this a ridiculous straddle, it’s no base of power from which to make bold moves.

And Kevin…you should know better. Barack Obama is not a progressive, and he has made it very clear that he doesn’t want to shape public opinion. He wants to bring Democrats and Republicans together and compromise. Maybe it’s time to read “Ultimately a genuine leader is not a searcher for consensus, but a molder of consensus” and Paid the (Opportunity) Cost to be the Boss.

I get it that everyone hates John McCain and feels compelled to vote for the alternative. What I don’t get is how any liberals/progressives can be excited about it or think that they are voting for someone who shares their priorities. You’re either kidding yourselves or you’re hearing what you want to hear, and not what Obama’s actually saying.