1115.org

(1) Just In Case You’d Got Your Hopes Up

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced yesterday that nobody should expect any resolution of the Michigan-Florida stalemate from the Democratic Party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, which is scheduled to meet tomorrow:

While saying she believes those two states’ delegates should be seated, Pelosi added that it must happen “in a way that is not destructive to any sense of order in the party.”

“If you have no order and no discipline in terms of party rules, people will be having their primary in the year before the presidential election,” she said. “So there has to be some penalty.”

She said the party committee will come up with a formula that is “fair and accepted by both campaigns,” perhaps allowing the states 50 percent of their delegates. But “if the resolution is not appropriate, then it remains for the (Democratic National Convention) credentials committee to resolve it,” she said. Then, “it will have to happen by the end of June” or she will intervene, she said.

You missed it, didn’t you? It was the part where she said the committee has to come up with a formula that is “fair and accepted by both campaigns”. That is to say, both campaigns have veto power over the proposed resolution. (This is the same principle the Democratic Party leadership has espoused all along.) And it’s a given that each campaign will veto any proposal that the other one is willing to accept.

In addition, there’s the fact that Hillary Clinton has absolutely no interest in actually seeing the situation resolved. All she wants is: a) to be able to rave and rant about the grave injustice being done to Michigan and Florida voters for as long as possible, and b) to be able to declare for as long as possible that she can’t possibly quit because it’s not over, and it’s not over because the Michigan and Florida situation has not yet been resolved.

So this is definitely going to the Credentials Committee. And Pelosi will step in (to do what exactly?) but not till the end of June. Because it is so helpful to the Democratic party, and to Obama’s chances of beating McCain, to let Hillary’s divisive garbage drag on through all of June.

(2) Yet Another Compromise Plan

NBC’s Chuck Todd wrote a rumor-shopping post yesterday about a compromise plan that “seems to be gaining momentum”:

I have hesitated reporting on every rumor we’ve heard about a potential compromise in the Florida-Michigan delegate dispute, but there’s one plan circulating that seems to be gaining momentum.

This plan would halve the votes for all of the Florida delegates, netting Clinton 19 and, more importantly, counting that popular vote. (NBC’s Political Director really thinks that the popular vote is more important than the delegate count?) But Michigan’s primary results would not be accepted and, instead, that state’s delegates would simply be split 50-50 between Clinton and Obama.

All of the delegations, under this compromise, would be seated in full, but each delegate’s vote would be counted as 0.5, including the superdelegates.

Again, this is just one rumored plan, but it’s gaining enough support with some that I figured it was worth reporting. Who knows, by tonight, a new compromise plan will become the plan du jour, but for now, get familiar with this idea.

By the way, should this compromise pass, it would mean the new magic number for nomination would be 2,118.

I have nothing against rumor or gossip, but is it so difficult to do a little elementary arithmetic first to see if the plan really stands any chance?

Michigan was supposed to have 128 pledged delegates (and 29 superdelegates); Florida 185 and 26.

Under the compromise plan, Michigan seats 64 pledged delegates and Florida seats 92.5, for a total of 156.5. The superdelegates are also sliced in half, to 14.5 and 13, respectively.

Obama would pick up 63.5 pledged delegates under this plan (32 for Michigan and 31.5 for Florida). That would put him at 2,045.5 total delegates, just 72.5 delegates short of victory. With 86 pledged delegates and 191 superdelegates still to be divvied up, that’s 26% of the remaining delegates. I’m sure Obama is pretty confident he can pick up 26% of the remaining delegates.

Clinton would pick up 83 pledged delegates under this plan (32 for Michigan and 51 for Florida). That would put her at 1,865 total delegates, 253 short of victory, which is 91% of the remaining delegates.

I really don’t think there’s any way Hillary Clinton is signing on to this plan, no matter what anyone has said to Chuck Todd.