Delegate Math: Yet Another Reality Check

Posted by on . 11 comments.

On May 14, just after the West Virginia primary, I wrote:

… if the remaining pledged delegates are split evenly between Hillary and Obama, then Clinton would need to win 204 of the remaining 239 superdelegates (89%, up from 82% last week) to take the total delegate lead.

It seems this hilarious lady has just launched a concerted campaign to woo superdelegates:

In what appear to be her closing arguments to superdelegates, Tuesday her campaign sent a letter to superdelegates that claimed she is a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama. Just in case superdelegates hadn’t understood her point, the campaign followed up on the letter on Wednesday, sending out a detailed, 11-page memo advancing the same suggestion. The memo included polls, charts and even Electoral College maps produced by Karl Rove.

So why not do a little reality check to see where she stands now?

With 86 pledged delegates up for grabs, and 195 superdelegates uncommitted, Obama leads the total delegate count, 1979 to 1781.

If the remaining pledged delegates were evenly split between Obama and Clinton, then Clinton would need to win 198 of the remaining 195 superdelegates to overtake Obama.

Things look pretty close in South Dakota (15 delegates): “No independent polls have been released in recent weeks, and both campaigns call the South Dakota race close.”

Obama leads by 17% in Montana (16 delegates): “Obama leads Clinton by 52 percent to 35 percent among likely Democratic voters, with 13 percent undecided in the poll, which was taken May 19-21. The Democratic primary portion of the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.”

Clinton has a 13% edge in Puerto Rico (55 delegates): “Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 51 percent to 38 percent with 8 percent saying they’d vote for neither and 3 per cent undecided, according to a poll conducted for the newspaper El Vocero and Univision.”

So in all likelihood, Clinton may win a few more pledged delegates than Obama, but probably not very much. Even if you give her a 47 to 39 lead (which is my guesstimate of the best she is likely to do), that still leaves her needing 190 of the remaining 195 superdelegates (97%).

So what is Clinton hoping for? A huge windfall from the Democratic Party rules committee on Saturday? Mass defections by committed superdelegates? Mass defections by pledged delegates?

Comments

  1. DisgustedWithDNC says:
    May 29, 2008 at 10:11 am

    My family and myself voted for Hillary and will support her all the way. The media has treated Obama like an endangered species. We don’t want a prsidential candidate, with enough baggage to fill an island, which Obama. Why would anyone vote or endorse this man, with an unpatriotic wife, a racist pastor that he’s known for 20 years and don’t tell me he’s not still bothering with him. Wright is just staying quiet for now. Obama doesn’t have the backbone to tell him off. How about Ayers? God help us if this man becomes President. My family and I will vote for McCain, if he does become the nominee. Obama and his followers remind me of a cult and their all brain washed. Obama, remiind me of a snake oil salesman. All these super delegates, will know how the people feel when it’s time for re-elecion time for them. They’ll all be fired. They work for us, not us for them. I thought it was the popular vote? We have caucases, delegates. They have this, because they don’t think we have the brain God gave us! Why vote, when our votes don’t count!

  2. sarabeth says:
    May 29, 2008 at 10:21 am

    Obama and his followers remind me of a cult and their all brain washed.

    And this is from a rabid Clintonite? Very rich!

  3. Louise says:
    May 29, 2008 at 12:25 pm

    Hillary will not win. The woman do not have a conscious. She is using the michigan and florida voters. When her attitude before she needed them was screw em! If she cared about the democratic party that she claim that she loves, she would stop this circus. She has been so mean spirited ,I would be surprised if she is reelected to her senate seat.She makes me sick.

  4. Brain Dead says:
    May 29, 2008 at 2:08 pm

    Hi, I support Clinton. I am brain dead and can’t think of anything to say except that Obama is an “empty suit” and he went to a church with mean pastor (ignore what the pastor did for the community) so Obama must be a mean, bigoted person, too. Oh, and his wife is unpatriotic. Let’s kick her out of the country! I don’t care what people say about Geraldine Ferarro’s comments; she’s not a bigot. Neither is Hillary Clinton, by claiming that she is more electable because Obama can’t capture the hard-working WHITE working-class vote. I admire how Hillary can always change the math in this primary. I admire her for lying to the country about avoiding sniper fire during her trip to Bosnia (and her unbelievable ignorance that television footage contradicting her lie would surface). I admire her for lying about her crucial role in the Northern Ireland peace process. I admire her for invoking the assassination of RFK as a reason to stay in the race. I admire her for not reading the intelligence report before authorizing the president to declare war in Iraq, costing thousands of young Americans’ lives. I admire her for demonstrating her great concern as a mother by lying about Chelsea jogging near the Twin Towers on 9/11. I admire her for not protecting the rights of the MI and FL voters when they were stripped of their delegates, but waiting until she needed those delegates to become their chamption. The Republicans will remind us of all the criminals with whom she associated if she wins the nomination, but I admire her for that, because she’s a woman and it just shows how compassionate women are. Most of all, I admire her for tearing apart the Democratic party to make sure a Republican wins the presidency in a year when this should have never happened.

  5. matt says:
    May 29, 2008 at 3:03 pm

    >The woman do not have a conscious.

    i have it on good information that a LOLcat wrote this comment.

  6. sarabeth says:
    May 29, 2008 at 3:15 pm

    Re 4: If you’re brain dead, you do not have a conscious either. But you’re apparently not honest enough to say so.

    This round goes to the LOLcat.

  7. Larry Gordon says:
    May 29, 2008 at 7:05 pm

    I can hardly wait for the disappearance of both
    the Clinton and Bush “royalty” from the nat’l news.
    Our forefathers came to America to get rid of
    this kind of nepotism. It’s time for something at least remotely resembling a democracy with leadership
    that has the best interests of THIS country as its focus.

  8. ConsiderChange says:
    May 30, 2008 at 1:32 am

    A few articles for review (copy and paste the links- if two lines, then paste each carefully to combine), and had these been reported in the media BEFORE Super Tuesday, the race could very well be different):

    MI and FL SHOULD be counted, and the following link helps to explain why:

    http://www.alternet.org/module/printversion/80993

    (If the DNC knew of this prior to the candidates agreeing to the ’sanctions’, then that IS a travesty and Senator Clinton should keep fighting for the votes to be counted).

    Two concerns I have with Senator Obama:

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-galesburg_obama_webfeb01,0,7138122,print.story

    And, from JerseyGirl345 (Topixforum.net):

    “Exelon, a nuclear energy giant in Illinois, is Obama’s sixth largest donor.

    In fact, Exelon employees have donated over $269,100 to his federal campaigns and over $194,750 in 2008.

    These donations are significant, for Obama wrote legislation on Exelon’s behalf while serving in the US Senate. Constituents of Obama in Will County, Illinois, complained of nuclear waste surfacing in the area’s groundwater. They mobilized the support of Obama, who promised to write legislation requiring corporations such as Exelon to disclose radioactive leaks to surrounding communities. But Obama failed. Indeed, he allowed Exelon and Senate Republicans to dilute the bill. Instead of requiring companies to disclose information regarding radioactive leaks, the bill Obama wrote with Exelon lobbyists merely offered guidance for how to report a leak if those corporations chose to disclose such information. Obama’s consituents were not pleased.”

    ((So if the constituents within his own state are not pleased, job losses and corporate interests having more preference than the people, how will we, THE PEOPLE, benefit under his presidency? I want results more than eloquent speeches…))

    And the 2008 Democratic race in general:

    http://www..thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Winter08/PDFfiles/2008Election.pdf

    Oh, if you wanted the reference for the YouTube teacher apprentice link:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VeKppnBJ6U

    here is the full article from The Atlantic (copy and paste the link as well):

    http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200712/clinton-obama

    Thank you for the opportunity to post.

  9. Bugz says:
    May 30, 2008 at 9:00 am

    First. Church and state should be seperate. Second – I dont care if Obama prays to the dali lama, carries a buddah in his pocket and sprinkles fairy dust on his pillows at night. I just care about Change. We need to get Bush and any version of him ..ie McCain…out of the White House! Vote democrat…I don’t care who is on the ticket. Hilary bores me. She is monotone and inspires no excitment or patriotism. Listening to her is like listening to my great grandmother tell me about the quality of milk from 1920. I will vote for her if she is the nominee though…but heck, I would vote for Chris Rock is he was the nominee…Anything to get Bush out of the white house!

  10. james says:
    June 2, 2008 at 9:36 am

    Why does Clinton appear to be laughing like an idiot in most of her pictures?

  11. Jessy says:
    June 2, 2008 at 10:55 am

    >In response to BrainDead’s comment<

    LOL

    If you were in American Idle, Simon would most likely agree. Great job with your post!