Fat Ladies And Delegate Math

by sarabeth at 6:00 am on May 14th, 2008 in 2008 Presidential, Barack Obama, Hillary

If the fat lady sings in the forest but Hillary stamps her foot and insists that she can’t hear her singing, is it still over?

Well, nobody ever said it ain’t over till Hillary says it’s over, and the delegate math tells its own story. Here’s how the numbers have changed in the last week.

By RealClearPolitics’ count, one week ago the superdelegate numbers showed Obama trailing Hillary 257 to 271. Obama has picked up 27 superdelegates, while Hillary has a net gain of exactly one (after defections). So Obama now leads it 284 to 272.

After preliminary West Virginia results (and some updating), Obama’s 1588 to 1422 pledged delegate lead is now 1598 to 1442.

To refresh the numbers from my post last week, if the remaining pledged delegates are split evenly between Hillary and Obama, then Clinton would need to win 204 of the remaining 239 superdelegates (89%, up from 82% last week) to take the total delegate lead.

Hillary Clinton wins by a crushing margin in West Virginia as predicted — entirely due to rampant racism apparently — and the percentage of superdelegates she needs to pick up has still moved significantly in the wrong direction. And there’s nobody in the Clinton campaign who can sit this lady down and tell her that there’s no way she’s ever winning this thing? That it gets more unlikely every day, not less? That all she’s doing now is hammering nails into the coffin of any future presidential aspirations she may still harbor?

Haven’t we had enough consecutive years of a President whom aides are afraid to break bad news to, a President who cannot recognize reality with a magnifying glass even when it comes captioned and with a headline, a President who doesn’t know when to gracefully fold (or maybe it’s how rather than when, for both Bush and Hillary)?

Haven’t we had enough consecutive years of a President who simply can’t hear the fat lady sing even when she’s singing loud enough to hurt everyone else’s ears?

Comments

  1. Clare from Orlando wrote:

    I think the fat lady has gotten a bypass

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