Could Obama Win Pennsylvania?

Posted by on . 11 comments.

But here’s the notion that I find really intriguing. What do you do if you’re a Pennsylvania voter who prefers Hillary to Obama, but you’re even more concerned about the nomination fight dragging on till the convention and hurting the eventual Democratic nominee’s chances against McCain?

There are, of course, the polls which show that Hillary Clinton‘s double digit margin has been eroding steadily, a pattern we have seen before in so many other states where the Rocky wannabe started with an imposing lead.

But here’s the notion that I find really intriguing. What do you do if you’re a Pennsylvania voter who marginally prefers Hillary to Obama, but you’re even more concerned about the nomination fight dragging on till the convention and hurting the eventual Democratic nominee’s chances against McCain? Could “a goodly number of Pennsylvanians who were on the fence … (jump) to the Obama side because they see the mathematical improbability of Clinton having enough delegates to clinch the nomination and want the race to end much sooner than later”?

We’ve heard over and over again how determined Hillary is to fight till the bitter end (which is a little different from staying in the race in the hope that something dramatic happens to force Obama out of the race; in the latter scenario you spend the next few months attacking McCain, not Obama).

We’ve heard how no one in the Democratic party really has enough stature to tell Hillary to gracefully yield to Obama since she can’t realistically hope to erase his delegate lead (even with serious superdelegate hardball).

But, of course, if Hillary were to lose Pennsylvania, that would change the dynamic considerably. It would probably cause many uncommitted superdelegates to break for Obama. It would make the calls for her to quit that much more strident and compelling. Continuing to fight for the nomination regardless would probably start to seriously jeopardize her chances of being able to run for president again in the future.

So it would seem that voters in the Pennsylvania primary have a unique opportunity to possibly cut short the battle for the Democratic nomination. Maybe a goodly number of Pennsylvanians will think it is worth defecting from Hillary to Obama in order to achieve that end. Especially if someone starts putting it to them in these terms between now and April 22.

Comments

  1. Jimmy says:
    April 3, 2008 at 2:30 pm

    “These terms” have been blatantly obvious for weeks. I don’t know why you’re suggesting that people haven’t “already” been thinking about the overall ramifications of an Obama win in Pennsylvania. It’s nothing new.

    One thing that could have an impact (degree yet to be seen) is the number of Republicans who have set themselves up to vote for Clinton in order to help her win the state vs, Obama. There are quite a few Republicans that when faced with a possible Democratic win would rather see Clinton than the more liberal Obama. Obviously, they’d rather see a Republican in office but when given the choice between liberal and ultra liberal they’d rather have the former. Sure Clinton is hated by many Republicans but among many (I didn’t say all) a McCain/Clinton contest is seen as the lesser evil when compared to a McCain/Obama contest.

  2. Jimmy says:
    April 3, 2008 at 2:32 pm

    #1 was refering to this quote from the post:

    “Especially if someone starts putting it to them in these terms between now and April 22.”

  3. sarabeth says:
    April 3, 2008 at 3:03 pm

    Reading comprehension issues?

    For people to be “thinking about the overall ramifications of an Obama win in Pennsylvania” is one thing; it is quite another for someone to be systematically pitching the proposition to Pennsylvania voters that they have the unique opportunity to stop Hillary. That even if they find they prefer Hillary to Obama, they should still ask themselves: “How concerned am I about the nomination fight dragging on till the convention?”

    So Hillary is a liberal and Obama is an ultra liberal? Really?

    The universally acknowledged reason why Republicans prefer to face Hillary rather than Obama is that they regard her as easier to beat. For reasons that have nothing whatsoever to do with relative liberalness.

  4. Emmanuel Dennis says:
    April 4, 2008 at 6:43 am

    The possibilities of Obama winning Pensylvania are rather obvious. This race needs to be over and the people of Pennsylvania have the opportunity to make that decission for America. I am starting to think that Hillary Clinton is not interested in the Presidency but would readily though secretely support McCain should she lose to Obama. Most definitely an Hillary/McCain contest will deliver Mcain and the opposite is true should it be Obama/McCain. McCain will have a run for his money and a big defeat. I agree its not about liberalness. For starters would Hillary make a good Vice President?

  5. tom says:
    April 4, 2008 at 8:15 am

    “One thing that could have an impact (degree yet to be seen) is the number of Republicans who have set themselves up to vote for Clinton in order to help her win the state vs, Obama.”

    pennsylvania is a closed primary, so that would require republicans changing their voter registration to dem just to vote for hillary. i doubt that will be a significant issue.

  6. matt says:
    April 4, 2008 at 9:11 am

    >pennsylvania is a closed primary

    thank heavens for that.

  7. Jimmy says:
    April 4, 2008 at 11:02 am

    #3-
    “it is quite another for someone to be systematically pitching the proposition to Pennsylvania voters that they have the unique opportunity to stop Hillary. That even if they find they prefer Hillary to Obama, they should still ask themselves: “How concerned am I about the nomination fight dragging on till the convention?””

    That’s exactly what I was talking about so there’s nothing “quite different” about it. The “overall” ramifications are “the unique opportunity to stop Hillary” which would obviously stop “the nomination fight dragging on till the convention”. If the “on the fence” Clinton/Obama voters haven’t already been considering this (for many weeks) maybe they should just stay on the fence because their brains aren’t working…

    “Reading comprehension issues? ”

    I actually prefer not to “go there” (infer someone else has issues) but since you brought it up… My first comment was clearly referring to the last sentence of your post (since I copy/pasted it). In that sentence of you were clearly referring to the very point you just “re-wrote” in #3 (in the first paragraph starting with “it is quite another for someone to be…”). Therefore, my first post was obviously “already” speaking to the very points you simply restated in post #3. That should’ve been crystal clear the first time you read post #1&2…

    “The universally acknowledged reason why Republicans prefer to face Hillary rather than Obama is that they regard her as easier to beat.”

    Oh yes, “universally acknowledged”. First, the polls (that you seem to like watching & citing) have actually gone back and forth on who wins (Clinton or Obama) and by how much vs. McCain. Second, for the record, polls are next to worthless and change like the wind based on who conducts them as well as numerous sampling error factors that make them extremely unreliable. Third, I’ve listened to good arguments as to why McCain may have a better chance against Obama.

    BTW, since you like polls, I’m sure you’ve read a few polls over the past few weeks that said more Clinton supporters would vote for McCain over Obama than Obama supporters who would vote for McCain over Clinton. I’ve actually seen a few polls saying the exact opposite as well but generally the numbers were much closer to par in the polls that favored Obama. Again, people should realize that polls are meaningless & the only reason I even mention them is because I know you like them. Personally, I’m a long time Democratic voter who will vote for McCain vs. Obama.

    #5-
    No kidding, it’s closed?..

    I know that. The voters needed to change their voter registration by a date March. Some of the widely listened to Republican talk radio shows urged Republicans to do exactly that and many people called in acknowledging that they had done so. Like I said before, many conservatives are worried that they may lose against “either Dem candidate” but they definitely do not want Obama because he’s seen as even more liberal than Clinton.

  8. Jimmy says:
    April 4, 2008 at 11:19 am

    “but they definitely do not want Obama because he’s seen as even more liberal than Clinton.”

    Before anyone incorrectly comments on that statement with something like “More Republicans think they can beat Clinton easier than they think they can beat Obama” I’ll beat them to the punch and tell them to read the last sentence in #7 again (maybe a little slower this time) so they can see I said “many conservatives” not “all conservatives” or even “most conservatives”… Even a few % of Republicans voting for Clinton in the Dem’s primary will not only increase her winning % in Pennsylvania. Just as importantly, it will also help close the gap in the Nat’l popular vote.

  9. tom says:
    April 4, 2008 at 2:13 pm

    “I know that. The voters needed to change their voter registration by a date March. Some of the widely listened to Republican talk radio shows urged Republicans to do exactly that and many people called in acknowledging that they had done so.”

    what are we talking about, 10, maybe 15 whole voters? come on now, people are lazy as hell. nobody is switching registrations just to vote for hillary in the penn primary. get off the rocks.

  10. Joe says:
    April 20, 2008 at 8:05 am

    Listen, all voters should vote for Obama, it only
    make since. If the republicans vote for Hilary just
    to think they rather see Hilary vs Mccain, the
    voters need to man up by voting for Obama. The
    Clintons had their chances and messed it up.
    This country need a fresh change, the old politics
    need to disappear.

  11. matt says:
    April 20, 2008 at 6:56 pm

    learn to speak the language.