Reality Check

by sarabeth at 5:00 am on March 10th, 2008 in 2008 Presidential, Hillary

Hillary Clinton talking to Newseek:

Q: How can you win the nomination when the math looks so bleak for you?

A: It doesn’t look bleak at all.

Like heck, it doesn’t!

Including both pledged delegates and committed superdelegates, Obama has a lead of 120 today. Realistically, Clinton is not likely to be able to chip away at that lead very much via the remaining primaries/caucuses. Even fervent Clinton supporters would probably agree that Clinton gaining 20 pledged delegates is about the best case scenario. That leaves Clinton with a 100 delegate deficit to be made up from 340 uncommitted superdelegates. In other words, assuming no concerted campaign to peel away superdelegates and pledged delegates from the other camp — and assuming no spontaneous switching — Clinton needs to take the uncommitted superdelegates 220 to 120. That’s 65%.

Which sounds like pretty bleak math to me.

(Note: Numbers corrected at 10:15 am. The post originally said that Clinton’s lead today is 155. Thanks to reader Cristian Georgescu for pointign out the error.)

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