More Fun With Democratic Nomination Numbers

Posted by on . 3 comments.

Everyone has been saying for a good long while now (including me myself, to be frank) that 2,025 delegates are needed to win the Democratic nomination.

However, as per RealClearPolitics, once you exclude Michigan and Florida, there are a total of 3,831 delegates (pledged and super). Surely, unless an agreement is reached to seat delegates for Michigan and Florida, the winning candidate just needs a simple majority of the 3,831 delegates eligible to vote on the nomination? Meaning that it will take only 1,916 to win, and not 2,025.

Comments

  1. matt t says:
    March 10, 2008 at 11:10 am

    I have always read that 2025 is an adjusted goal that take MI and FL into account. Before the MI and FL debacles, the magic number was 2208.

    From USA Today:

    Neither candidate is likely to emerge with the 2,025 delegates needed for the nomination just by winning the remaining 18 primaries and caucuses, said Anthony Corrado, a political scientist at Colby College. That’s why super delegates are crucial.

    There are 4,048 total delegates available, including delegates awarded proportionally through the popular vote and super delegates.

    Before Florida and Michigan were punished, a Democratic candidate would have needed 2,208 delegates out of 4,414 total to secure the nomination.

  2. sarabeth says:
    March 10, 2008 at 11:57 am

    Then it sounds like RealClearPolitics has some missing delegates, because their total delegates are adding up to 3,831 like I said, and not 4,048.

    Does anyone have any idea what the explanation is?

  3. sarabeth says:
    March 10, 2008 at 12:01 pm

    My bad! I misses 217 delegates they have listed at the bottom on the large.

    It is indeed exactly as Matt T said.