All sorts of people have been freely rendering advice to Hillary Clinton, telling her what she should do with her presidential aspirations (for example, Jonathan Alter in Newsweek). The consensus seems to be that, although she is locked in a tight race with Obama, and although it is virtually certain that if she stays in the race they would both arrive at the Democratic convention short of the 2025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, she should nevertheless give up the fight and drop out of the race.

First the math. According to RealClearPolitics, at last count, Obama has picked up 1193 pledged ordinary delegates to Clinton’s 1038. Let’s leave superdelegates out of it for just a moment. To get to 2025 delegates, Obama would need to win 832 of the 981 ordinary delegates still up for grabs (that’s 85%; Ohio and Texas, incidentally, represent 334 of the remaining delegates). Given how close most of the primaries and caucuses have been, it is inconceivable that Obama — despite all the momentum he has generated — can get there. Which makes it virtually certain that even Obama cannot lock up this thing without superdelegates.

So let’s factor them in. While Obama has a 155 delegate edge among ordinary delegates, Clinton has a 57 delegate edge among committed superdelegates. Adding these in, Obama leads 1377 to 1279, and needs 648 delegates more to reach the magic 2025. In other words, if no more superdelegates commit, Obama needs to win 66% of the remaining 981 ordinary delegates. That’s probably not happening either.

Unless a whole bunch of superdelegates choose to commit themselves before the Democratic National Convention in August, Obama and Clinton would arrive in Denver still short of the 2025 delegates they need, and it would all come down to how the superdelegates choose to line up.

Back to the advice people are generously offering Hillary. She should apparently quit now (before Texas and Ohio) because Obama has all the momentum and Hillary cannot possibly win. All she’s doing by staying in is eroding the Clinton political brand name.

The most basic question, of course, is that if Hillary can’t win, how exactly can Obama? It seems abundantly clear that if Hillary chooses to remain in the race, who wins will come down to the superdelegates. Ands there are no rules which lay down what superdelegates must do. No real norms either. Which is why nobody who is politically savvy is really hazarding predictions as to how the superdelegate battle might shake out. The one thing that’s clear is that there will be a whole lot of totally no-holds-barred hardball. The other thing that’s clear is that the Clintons will be cashing in all their chips. Will it be enough? Who knows? Could Clinton win? Yes, she sure could. Is Obama more likely to win than Clinton? I guess I’m too politically savvy to do anything but dodge that one. The point, though, is that the “Hillary can’t win” argument really doesn’t hold water. She jolly well can, and she knows it.

Then there’s the other argument about how Hillary is only hurting the party by staying in when all the momentum is on Obama’s side. Just to be realistic for a moment, there’s momentum and then there’s momentum. And Obama has so much inexorable momentum that he can’t blow away Hillary unless she chooses to drop out. And while there may be some bitterness in some people’s mouths if Hillary stays in the race and wins it at the convention because of superdelegate hardball, I have a really hard time seeing Obama supporters refusing to vote for Hillary over McCain in November. So I really don’t see how it hurts the party if Hillary stays in.

(In this post, I’m deliberately not addressing the electability issues arising out of the national head-to-head match-up polls which show McCain doing better against Hillary than Obama. For the record, though, I don’t believe those polls. And one day soon I’ll put my money where my mouth is and explain why. The short version: if Hillary turns out to be the nominee, I’m convinced the Obama independents will end up picking Hillary over McCain. That is to say, I believe the poll numbers will slowly shift the closer we come to November.)

When I ask myself what I would do if I were Hillary Clinton, I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t drop out of the race even if I lost in Texas (but won in Ohio). I’m not so sure I would drop out even if I lost both Texas and Ohio, provided both were narrow losses.

Balloon Juice‘s John Cole wrote on Monday:

Why should she get out now? She has spent years preparing for this run, has millions of supporters who want her to continue, she still has a shot (albeit a small one, I think) at winning, and I think she owes it to herself and those who have sacrificed so much to get her this close to continue on. Should she lose the next few states and really start to trail badly in delegates, I think she should probably get out, but it should be on her own terms. Trying to pressure her out right now doesn’t sit right with me, though.

The trouble I have with that analysis is when he says “Should she … really start to trail badly in delegates”. At this point, it’s too close and there are too few delegates left on the table. Even if Obama’s lead grows from 155 ordinary delegates to, say, 200 after Texas and Ohio, that really can’t be called trailing badly in delegates. Especially when Hillary has a slight edge among superdelegates.