Expect to read and hear the word contraction a lot; I think the spinmeisters think it sounds better than recession.

The service sector, that crucial component of the economy that encompasses everything from restaurants and hair salons to doctors visits, contracted for the first time in five years in January, an unexpectedly weak showing that sent a shudder through Wall Street.

Taking the news as further evidence the economy is sinking toward recession, investors dumped stocks, sending the Dow Jones industrial average tumbling by 370 points, to 12,265, the biggest drop since August.

The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index, which reflects two-thirds or more of the economy, fell to 41.9 in January, from 54.4 the prior month.
[...]
Economists noted that any figure below 50 in the institute’s report indicates activity is shrinking.

“But when you get a horrendous 41.9 … you know the economy is in trouble. The last time the index touched that level was in October 2001, a period when we were in recession,” said Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, N.J.
[...]
“This is a huge drop for this index. It usually never moves more than a point or two in any direction month to month. This data, if valid, raises the odds that a nationwide recession is currently under way,” said economist Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis.

Two-thirds of the economy is tanking, big-time and unexpectedly. Of course, we’re all supposed to stay focused on 24 consecutive quarters of economic growth, I think. There also used to be “52 straight months of job growth”, which our never-the-whole-truth Dear Leader trumpeted as recently as the State of the Union Address on January 28. But I don’t think they trumpet such streaks after they end. Too bad the streak ended just days after the the State of the Union Address.

Or what the heck, let’s be precise: we learned on February 1 that “Nervous employers cut 17,000 jobs in January — the first such reduction in more than four years and a fresh trouble sign that the economy is in danger of stalling.” The President, of course, could never have had any advance warning that job growth would do this deeply unpatriotic thing. Because if he had, then he would never have said what he said in the State of the Union Address. Never.

Besides, he probably doesn’t pay any attention to the economic polls either. (Or maybe he dismisses inconvenient economic predictions as cheerfully as he dismisses intelligence assessments? Why leave it to the professionals?)