1115.org

(1)
See, this is why sensible people don’t write posts on the eve of caucuses (why not “cauci”?) and primaries reflecting the conventional wisdom going into the voting. Because nobody really knows damn all, not even the pollsters, no matter how unanimous their polls seem to be.

It was a convincing narrative. Obama with the big momentum, the Clinton camp in disarray. The American voter as sheep: Iowa tells them what to do, and they faithfully go about doing it. Except that New Hampshire voters have never quite behaved like that, have they? And the prognosticating pundits never quite seem to manage to remember that. That’s why they continue to be prognosticating pundits. Being wrong most of the time is a job requirement. That’s also why it’s so hard to break into the prognosticating pundit business. No openings. Nobody ever gets fired. (Nobody’s ever right enough of the time for that to happen.)

This much is obvious: what happened in New Hampshire is much bigger than what happened in Iowa. Because if Obama had carried New Hampshire by the margins that were being predicted, that would pretty much have been that. The fat lady would have taken her bow, and the race would have been over. (Okay, maybe a little hyperbole there, but not a whole lot, really.)

For better or for worse, Obama would have a hammer-lock on the nomination. And many (most?) of the Democrats who had been opposed to his nomination would have come to hold their noses (some more tightly than others), and given him their full support. Because the alternative — one of the Republican candidates-from-hell — would be unthinkably worse than even the worst President this country has ever seen so far (take your bow, George, that’s a good boy).

But now, hey, we have a choice between two stinky-nose candidates. For anyone who’s still undecided between Obama and Clinton, and is trying to figure out how the hell to decide, I recommend two simple, decision rules.

One, just follow me, and go with Clinton. At least she’s a Democrat.

Or, two, give yourself the nose test. See how hard you have to squeeze your nose for each one. Let your nose lead you.

(2)
I’ll save our resident dumpster the trouble of pointing out that I never addressed Edwards.

Edwards certainly looks pretty well out of it, now. But he’s not getting out of the race. So one can still hope, even if once can’t realistically expect a serious revival in his prospects.

That said, the New Hampshire results were pretty damn unexpected too, were they not? And if there’s some unexpected external circumstance, who knows?

So, for the moment, my heart and my money still belong to Edwards.