Your Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson (4/20/07):

“All the signs I look at” show “the housing market is at or near the bottom,” Paulson said. The U.S. economy is “very healthy” and “robust.”

National Association of Realtors (9/5/07):

Pending home sales, a forward-looking indicator, shows existing-home sales are likely to decline in coming months as mortgage disruptions work their way through the housing market, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The Pending Home Sales Index*, based on contracts signed in July, fell 12.2 percent to a reading of 89.9 in July from the June index of 102.4, and was 16.1 percent lower than July 2006 when it stood at 107.1.

OECD Sees Sharp U.S. Economic Slowdown – AP (9/5/07):

The U.S. economy faces a significant economic slowdown that should lead the U.S. Federal Reserve to ease interest rates, a senior official of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday.

“The housing sector is set to exert a longer- and more-potent-than-expected drag, and confidence has weakened in the U.S.,” said OECD Chief Economist Jean-Philippe Cotis in a statement accompanying the think-tank’s interim economic outlook.
[...]
The OECD lowered its U.S. gross domestic product growth forecast to 0.5 percent for the third quarter and to 0.4 percent for the fourth quarter, from its May estimate of a 0.6 percent expansion in both quarters.

I still want to know at which “signs” Paulson was looking.