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Chertoff bases warning of terror risk on ‘gut feeling’ – McClatchy-Tribune (7/11/07):

“I believe we are entering a period this summer of increased risk,” [Homeland Security Secretary Michael] Chertoff told the Chicago Tribune’s editorial board in an unusually blunt and frank assessment of America’s terror threat level.

“Summertime seems to be appealing to them,” he said of al-Qaida. “We do worry that they are rebuilding their activities.”

Still, Chertoff said there are not enough indications of an imminent plot to raise the current threat levels nationwide. And he indicated his remarks were based on “a gut feeling” formed by past seasonal patterns of terrorist attacks, recent al-Qaida statements, and intelligence he did not disclose.

There is an assessment “not of a specific threat, but of increased vulnerability,” he added.
[...]
“We could easily be attacked,” Chertoff added. “The intent to attack us remains as strong as it was on Sept. 10, 2001.”

No news here. Of course the Bush administration wouldn’t be the Bush administration if they weren’t out there trying to scare the pants off of all the supposed tough guys who seem to spend more time wetting their beds than, say, serving in Iraq or Afghanistan. But it is interesting that Chertoff would let slip that the administration is worried that al-Qaida is “rebuilding” and that there is an “increased vulnerability.” It’s true that no official has said that al-Qaida is gone, and clearly fear is too valuable a tool for anyone to claim that the U.S. is totally safe, but I’m quite sure that we have been subject to a steady stream of assertions assuring us that al-Qaida is “on the run,” and that the “homeland” is “safer.”

The timing of Chertoff’s remarks is also suspect. Just the day after his sit-down in Chicago, the Washington Post reported that six years of being “on the hunt” and “rooting out” hasn’t made all that much difference:

Six years after the Bush administration declared war on al-Qaeda, the terrorist network is gaining strength and has established a safe haven in remote tribal areas of western Pakistan for training and planning attacks, according to a new Bush administration intelligence report to be discussed today at a White House meeting.

The report, a five-page threat assessment compiled by the National Counterterrorism Center, is titled “Al-Qaida Better Positioned to Strike the West,” intelligence officials said. It concludes that the group has significantly rebuilt itself despite concerted U.S. attempts to smash the network.
[...]
“We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications.”

Also in the Post piece, Chertoff takes a bit of well-deserved criticism from terrorism experts. Judging from his flip-flop today, it must have touched a nerve:

Chertoff says Qaeda not posing pre-Sept 11 threat – Reuters (7/12/07):

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said on Thursday the threat to the United States from al Qaeda has not returned to levels seen just before the September 11 attacks nearly six years ago.

Chertoff played down media reports the militant network has regained strength and was now as great a threat as in the months before the September 11 attacks on Washington and New York.

“I wouldn’t put it at that level,” he told ABC’s “Good Morning America.” “I do think we’ve accomplished an awful lot in dismantling their activities overseas and in building our own defenses. But I do think the level of intent on the part of the enemy remains very high.”

Absent credible threats and specific instructions, Chertoff is simply fear mongering. Worse, he’s still trying to claim progress against al-Qaeda despite his own team’s report that they have “significantly rebuilt.” And the icing is his attempt to minimize the National Counterterrorism Center threat assessment by attributing it to the media.

Shorter Chertoff: Be really scared. We’re making progress. Pay no attention to government experts. 9/11.