Scooter Libby is Not Going to Jail
by matt at 12:30 pm on July 2nd, 2007 in Bush Man Date, PlamegateI’m on record with my thoughts on the odds of the President pardoning Scooter Libby. Now that the three-judge panel has denied his request to stay free pending his appeal, I’m willing to double down if anyone wants the other side.
Scooter is not going to do one day in prison.
*UPDATE 3:15pm PDT: Please do not attempt to fade my prediction skillz:
President Bush commuted the sentence of former aide I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby Monday, sparing him from a 2 1/2-year prison term in the CIA leak case.
…adding: more good news for me:
Message from ABC7 Futures Market:
Thanks for trading in the ABC7 Futures Market! Libby was pardoned so his stock has been cashed out and is now worth $100 per share (remember, stock price equals the probability of the event occurring, so now that we know the answer, there is a 100% probability the event occurred.)
You held a position in Yes which recently closed trading. The final price for Yes was $100.00. Your position has been automatically liquidated and was worth $500.00, making your new balance $8,392.63.
Winning $5 from Sac is still more satisfying.
JimC wrote:
I’m not going to take that bet. I believe he should spend jail time but not sure its gonna happen.
Posted 02 Jul 2007 at 2:13 pm ¶
sac wrote:
I hate to do this to you, but you will now owe my 10 American dollars when all is said and done.
Clark in ‘08!
Posted 02 Jul 2007 at 2:21 pm ¶
matt wrote:
pay me!
Posted 02 Jul 2007 at 3:15 pm ¶
sac wrote:
Doh! You take drachmas?
Posted 02 Jul 2007 at 3:56 pm ¶
matt wrote:
i take cold hard american currency. nullus.
also the giant stone coins of the yapp islanders.
Posted 02 Jul 2007 at 3:58 pm ¶
sac wrote:
I can’t fit the Yapp coins into my PayPal machine, so I guess Yankee dollars it is. Where should I leave the bag of pennies?
Posted 02 Jul 2007 at 4:03 pm ¶
sarabeth wrote:
The spin they’re giving it right now is that Bush has only commuted his sentence, he hasn’t pardoned him. He still remains a convicted felon. His good name is still stained forever. Etc.
But as someone (I was only half listening) just said on CNN’s Situation Room, a commutation today could still be followed by a pardon on Bush’s last day in office.
Has the ring of truth, doesn’t it? The sound of sickening inevitability.
Posted 02 Jul 2007 at 4:20 pm ¶
JimC wrote:
What is this ABC7 Futures Market and how can I get $8,392.63 balance? :-) (yes, I’d have to be right about something which with Scooter, I would have chosen that he would be pardoned)
Posted 02 Jul 2007 at 9:07 pm ¶
matt wrote:
like you did in #1 above?
you should stay very far away from anything involving predictions.
Posted 03 Jul 2007 at 3:28 am ¶