Arbitrage Opportunity

Posted by on . 3 comments.

AP-Ipsos (5/20/07):

Only 25 percent of those surveyed say things in the U.S. are going in the right direction, according to an AP-Ipsos poll this month. That is about the lowest level of satisfaction detected since the survey started in December 2003.

Rarely have longer-running polls found such a rate since the even gloomier days of 1992, ahead of the first President Bush’s re-election loss to Democrat Bill Clinton.

The current glumness is widely blamed on public discontent with the war in Iraq and with President George W. Bush.

AP-Ipsos (5/7/07-5/9/07):

President Bush Job Approval Rating:
Approve: 35
Disapprove: 61

There is a 10% dislocation in this market.

Comments

  1. JimC says:
    May 21, 2007 at 7:19 am

    Is it noteworthy that Congress is polling less than or equal (depending on the poll) to the President? (Although they are doing better than W on the “disapprove” side of the poll)

    Does this low approval come from the left who thinks congress has not done enough to stand up to W or something else? I would have thought after the election and swing to Democrats that the approval of congress would have fared better by now. So the only thing I can think of is that those who put Democrats in charge are not happy with their ability to get things done even though they still don’t have enough majority to overcome GOP maneuvering or Presidential vetos. So, given these roadblocks, why would the public disapprove of congress?

    My theory is that those who put Democrats in charge did so because they wanted a new change in tactics in Iraq but not the way the current Democratic leadership has attempted. Any thoughts on why congress is polling so low?

  2. matt says:
    May 21, 2007 at 7:36 am

    Is it noteworthy that Congress is polling less than or equal (depending on the poll) to the President?

    not for the purposes of this post.

    Any thoughts on why congress is polling so low?

    if i was polled on congressional approval, i would probably say no opinion. if pushed, i would say disapprove. i’m satisfied with pelosi and reid on most issues, but the fact that people like steny hoyer and the idiot blue dogs have influence is unacceptable to me. it’s not about making the base happy, it’s about doing what’s right and not being scared of your shadow.

    that said, the poll you picked is somewhat of an outlier. many other polls have them above water, even fox.

    i’m sure it was a honest mistake.

  3. JimC says:
    May 21, 2007 at 9:31 am

    Actually, it was a mistake, I thought I had used the link of the general list .

    I was looking at the top 3 lines. The AP-Ipsos @ 35%, Gallup @ 29%, Fox @ 32%….