1115.org

Last month, we took a look at Christmas shopping predictions, noting that while the consensus was for 3.1% growth in same-store sales, no one was bothering to mention that 2006 inflation is projected to be 3.3%.

Master Card is reporting that same-store sales growth came in at exactly 3% — 0.3% less than the rate of inflation - for a decline in sales in real terms. Neither the disappointing sales numbers nor the fact that it was actually a real decline is getting much play in the oh-so-librul media, which is so librul that they seem to have taken to simply reprinting retail industry press releases much the same as how they run government video news releases (VNRs) without identification.

None of this is especially surprising, really it’s kind of a hobby horse of mine. I don’t much care whether sales are up or down, but in an age where anyone can spin anything without regard for credibility (“things are going great in Iraq”,) it’s good to know that at least when numbers are involved, some kind of score can be kept. So as the holiday shopping season kicked off, we were treated to video of lines around the corner and tales of fisticuffs breaking out over this year’s version of the Cabbage Patch Kids, leaving most viewers under the impression that it was time to get on the battlefield before the stores were overrun. But the numbers paint an entirely different picture, and since it’s not in anyone’s interest (especially the media which is completely dependent on advertising dollars) to report bad news on sales, that picture is seen only by people who are paying very close attention. So much for fearlessly seeking the truth.

In somewhat related news, this New Yorker column on holiday shopping is interesting, especially this bit:

We all know that bad gifts inflict a cost—just think of the rigid smiles that greet an unwanted floral tie or Josh Rouse CD—but it’s surprising how big that cost can be. Since the early nineteen-nineties, Joel Waldfogel, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania, has been doing a series of studies in which college students are asked to put a value on the presents they receive. Waldfogel’s main finding is that, in general, people spend a lot more on presents than they’re worth to those who receive them, a phenomenon that he calls “the deadweight loss of Christmas.” A deadweight loss is created when you spend eighty dollars to give me a sweater that I would spend only sixty-five dollars to buy myself. Waldfogel estimates that somewhere between ten and eighteen per cent of seasonal spending becomes deadweight loss, which means that billions of dollars a year is now going to waste.

Now that should make you think the next time you get into a scuffle over a Playstation. I’d like to congratulate my assistant for avoiding deadweight loss by getting me Madonna’s first album, a Jamba Juice gift card, and some gingerbread men (nullus) cookies.