1115.org

When it comes from the mouth of an endangered Republican running for re-election:

Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), once an ardent supporter of the war in Iraq, said yesterday that the Bush administration should set a time frame for withdrawing U.S. troops. He added that most of the withdrawal could take place next year.

Shays, who faces a tough reelection campaign because of his previous support for President Bush’s war policies, made his comments after completing his 14th trip to Iraq this week.

Like my grandma always said, fourteenth time lucky.

Shays, chairman of the House Government Reform subcommittee on national security, emerging threats and international relations, plans to outline a time frame for withdrawal next month, after he holds three hearings titled “Iraq: Democracy or Civil War.”

Let’s wait and see what he actually says then. Here’s what he has actually said now:

“It is something we need to be willing to consider,” Shays said. “It is not a timeline of when the war ends. We can’t have that kind of timeline. But it is a timeline of when the bulk - not all - but the bulk of the heavy lifting is in the hands of the Iraqis.”

So let’s not have any real expectations. The “bulk of the heavy lifting” could mean they are doing 90% of the heavy lifting. It could equally well mean 55% (let’s be charitable and assume he won’t be so brazen as to try to get away with 51%). Maybe that’s why he said: “It may be a timeline Americans don’t want to hear”.

Meanwhile here is Tim Grieve from Salon’s War Room with his take on Shay’s announcement:

And indeed, while Shays has managed to get the word “timeline” out of his mouth without the usual GOP “cut and run” sneer, it’s not at all clear that what he means by it is what most Americans think when they hear the word. Fifty-seven percent of the public thinks the U.S. should set a timeline for withdrawing all its troops from Iraq by a certain date, and 52 percent say the timeline should be a short one: 19 percent say to withdraw all U.S. troops immediately, and 33 percent say the president should bring them all home by next August. That’s not what Shays is proposing; in fact, he’s not really proposing anything at all. He’s saying only that a timeline is “something we need to be willing to consider,” and that the timeline he has in mind “is not a timeline of when the war ends.”

Interestingly, Shays also took a long knife to Rumsfeld:

Shays criticized what he called the “huge mistakes” made by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, in particular the disbanding of the former Iraqi army, police and border patrols shortly after the toppling of Saddam Hussein. “I haven’t had faith in the secretary in a long time,” Shays said. He said Bush should let go of those who consistently offer bad advice.

Make that a long and sharp knife. Maybe the rumors that Bush has been trying to find a replacement for Rumsfeld are true, after all.