1115.org

Tuesday’s election in California provided a symmetrical bookend to Arnold Schwarzenegger’s political career. In coming to power, Schwarzenegger displayed many of the negative qualities associated with celebrities: out-of-control ego, acting as if the normal rules didn’t apply, and hype not backed by substance. In the off-year recall election, Schwarzenegger ran a cult-of-personality campaign full of false promises of bipartisanship and cooperation. In his off-year bid to bypass the legislature, he exposed all the lies he told to get elected, and his own personality helped to sink his slate of initiatives. It’s as if Schwarzenegger was an organ transplanted into the body of California; just as it’s possible to match the blood type yet still have the patient reject the organ, Arnold appeared to many to be the solution to the state’s disarray, but when his actions contradicted his rhetoric, the voters rejected him.

It didn’t have to be this way, and it all comes back to Schwarzenegger’s ego. California is still a state dominated by Democrats and left-leaning moderates. The media, especially in the first year of his term, went out of their way to point out the issues on which Schwarzenegger crossed party lines, (abortion and offshore drilling) as if it was so brave to hold such positions in California. It turned out not to be even the bare minimum as he attempted to cut college funding, programs for the elderly and the disabled. He shifted money away from elementary education and antagonized popular groups of employees such as nurses, firefighters, teachers and police. His answer to mounting budget problems ignored the need for additional revenue while insisting on reduced funding for popular programs. When his ultimatum was ignored by the majority Democrats in the legislature, he proposed a set of ballot propositions totally detached from the problems facing the state.

He may have depended on bad advice, but his defeat falls squarely on his own head. Californians want better education for their children, but punishing teachers wasn’t their idea of an answer. They want fiscal stability, but realized that concentrating power in the hands of a governor yet to face a general election wasn’t wise. They looked at limiting the role of unions in the political process and redrawing district lines and wondered what, other than Schwarzenegger’s power, would be gained. By a combined average of 57% to 43%, voters said no to this power grab. Had just one of Arnold’s four initiatives passed, his speech on Tuesday night could easily have focused on that one win and made the case that reform takes time. But the total loss and massive cost ($60 million in state election funds and up to $300 million in advertising) made that impossible. Though he could stage a comeback, it would take tactics he has been loathe to consider thus far. His September announcement stating his intention to run again in 2006 now looks like the desperate signal that it was, designed to allow him to continue raising money. I’ll stick with my April prediction and double-down on a pullout coupled with a return to Hollywood, leaving us with the bill.

In many ways, the amount spent on the 2005 election - more than either George W. Bush or John Kerry spent on their respective runs for President in 2004 - pales next to the opportunity costs created by the animosity the election engendered in Sacramento. While the important issues before the legislature were suspended in time awaiting the results of the election, California’s problems festered and matured. The Democratic leadership shares some of that blame, but their job is to serve their constituents, not the Governor’s lust for power or his corporate funders. With Schwarzenegger crippled, those Dems simply must step up with workable solutions if they want to avoid their nemesis’ electoral fate.

Education remains a problem in need of a long-term solution. Its funding needs to be secure and free from shifty accounting. Teachers, though right to resist Schwarzenegger’s unilateral tenure plan, must now work with the state to raise standards and the quality of schools. The fiscal situation must be addressed as well. It’s time that the tax firebreak set up by Republicans across the country is breached. Colorado voters saw the light and suspended their broken anti-tax system, and California should follow suit. Our system is becoming more regressive with businesses and wealthy individuals slipping out of their fair share and fees and cuts in services adversely affecting everyone else. The solution might not be popular and will certainly cause a commotion with D.C. Republicans, but California needs to be sensible. We don’t have the ability to print money like the federal government, and our credit doesn’t go as far. Taxes are simply going to have to be used to close the gap.

Redistricting reform remains an important goal. Prop 77 was fatally flawed and was hammered at the ballot box, but some form of fair redistricting reform should be in place in time for the next scheduled census in 2010. Schwarzenegger’s other pet project was designed to weaken unions by setting up a hurdle to their political activity. Aside from being wholly redundant, Prop 75 was mean-spirited and further destabilized the balance of power between corporations and their workers. Limiting union spending should either be coupled with similar limits on business or disregarded. With the immediate problems facing California, these two can wait.

As we await leadership from Democrats in the state legislature and gubernatorial candidates Steve Westley and Phil Angelides, it’s instructive to take a look at Schwarzenegger and his spectacular fall from grace. Like the President, whose numbers began to fall in the face of real opposition from the AARP on Social Security and Cindy Sheehan on the war, Arnold’s began to slide when he decided to tangle with teachers and nurses. Democrats in Washington and nationally ignore this lesson at their peril. No amount of political capital can prevent a righteous and focused group of people from exposing bad policy and bad acts. It’s one year until the 2006 elections. Our leaders need to know we’re watching and that we’ll accept nothing less than effective leadership.

Previously: Invincibility Fades