1115.org

As the Harrient Miers nomination drama played out over the past month, it was hard to figure out quite how to react to the spectacle of the right wing tearing one of the president’s nominees to shreds. On one hand, she wasn’t the obvious hardcore fringe candidate that conservatives wanted to parade in the Democrats’ faces. On the other hand, she seemed dangerously unqualified and her judicial philosophy was a complete unknown; for all anyone knows, she could have been the fulfillment of every wish on the conservatives’ list.

All this has immediately become moot. Now that Miers has taken herself out of the running (or was not-so-gently pushed), it’s time to focus on who Bush will offer up next. It’s fine to take a day and comment (or gloat) about how Miers’ resignation makes the President look weak and unable to control elements in his own party. But how much will that matter when Bush names her replacement? He’s still the President, and the Republicans still control Congress; if he picks someone they can rally around, they have the votes to push it through…or trigger the “nuclear option”.

Is the Miers incident an embarrassment for the administration? Of course. But that doesn’t in any way make it a victory for Democrats, even though they did a solid job of keeping to the controversy’s sidelines and managing their message in preparation for the next nominee. They still have to push uphill against the unquestionable conservative that is coming.

Some people think this opening gives Bush the opportunity to install Alberto Gonzales into the seat left by Sandra Day O’Connor. Don’t bet on it. His “values” bona fides were deemed insufficient by the religious right months ago, and after the Miers debacle they will insist on someone who passes every litmus test that can be drawn up. While it may be up to debate if the religious right alone scuttled the Miers nomination, perception is what counts—and the howling of religious groups is unlikely to be ignored this time around. Bush is already in deep trouble with people outside of his base, and while he can still push through a lot of legislation without the help of Democrats or independents (assuming a continued Republican majority in Congress), a full-scale revolt by the radical right will sap whatever political capital he may have left. So expect him to toss them a nice, juicy bone to get their morale up.

(It should also be noted that Gonzales would have had to deal with the exact same “executive privilege” issue that Miers supposedly removed herself over—the release of records and documents generated while working as White House counsel.)

Will the Republicans be able to force through an extremist nominee for the Supreme Court? Even after the scandals and controversies of late, that remains to be seen. But I imagine they are going to try, and things are going to get even uglier than they currently are. I can only hope that the Democrats are ready this time around.