1115.org

There are 100,000 troops trained, police, guard, special units, border patrol. There’s going to be 125,000 trained by the end of this year. Yes, we’re getting the job done. It’s hard work. Everybody knows it’s hard work, because there’s a determined enemy that’s trying to defeat us.

— President George Bush, at the first Presidential Debate with John Kerry, 9/30/2004

When Bush made this claim of Iraqi troop strength, it was one of those figures that seemingly came out of thin air. Even though it was obvious that the number had as much to do with reality as the tooth fairy, most news organizations (and, inexplicably, John Kerry himself) seemed not to take interest and let the inflated numbers slide. But that’s just history now.

So, exactly one year after that debate, have we even gotten to the 125,000 troops that Bush promised by the end of 2004? Nope. While the news reports of bombings, killings, terrorism, abductions, religious violence and dead U.S. soldiers stream out of Iraq like a faucet, a top American general recently revealed that Iraq’s army isn’t quite ready for prime time yet:

The number of Iraqi battalions capable of combat without U.S. support has dropped from three to one, the top American commander in Iraq told Congress Thursday, prompting Republicans to question whether U.S. troops will be able to withdraw next year.

One battalion? In my head, it’s hard not to hear what a lot of war supporters were saying when it became increasingly obvious that no WMDs would be found: Iraq is a big country, larger than the state of California. You can’t expect that they will find the weapons right away, but they are there. Trust us.

You can’t protect a country of that size with one army battalion, either. Which means that the optimistic reports of drawing down our troop levels in 2006 are either wildly off the mark or an admission that Iraq is fucked beyond our ability to repair it, so we might as well start bringing everyone back. Furthermore, some of you might remember that Iraq’s army had three fully-trained battalions as recently as June, according to the Pentagon; if that wasn’t an out-and-out lie, the implications are more than a bit depressing.

General George Casey (the top American commander referenced above) wasn’t all doom-and-gloom however; in remarks made to Congress, he portrayed the Iraqi troop strength figures as just another speed bump that could be easily passed:

Despite the drop, Casey hailed significant progress in training Iraqi security forces and noted that U.S. troops are embedded with more Iraqi units in mentoring roles than before. “Have we lost ground? Absolutely not,” Casey said.

Casey said the Pentagon’s standard for what constitutes a fully capable Iraqi battalion is high and that it’s been difficult to ensure logistical support for Iraqi units. “I understand how it could be perceived as disappointing,” he told Collins.

…

By the December elections, Casey said, the number of Iraqi security forces available will rise to 100,000, allowing the United States to ask for only 2,000 more U.S. troops compared with the 12,000 extra needed during last January’s elections.

Wow. That’s some serious deja vu. But such optimism, cautious as it may be, can’t hide the fact that after more than two years we still haven’t been able to convert our ambitions plans for Iraq into actual deeds. Meanwhile, while whole Iraqi battalions disappear into thin air, our troops have to continue carrying the weight—and the number of dead American soldiers will hit 2,000 long before December.

It’s not hard to imagine that in September of 2006 we’ll be reading this same story, promising an expansion of Iraqi forces that never happens. It’s hard work, after all.

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Update:

At this moment, more than a dozen Iraqi battalions have completed training and are conducting anti-terrorist operations in Ramadi and Fallujah. More than 20 battalions are operating in Baghdad. And some have taken the lead in operations in major sectors of the city.

In total, more than 100 battalions are operating throughout Iraq. Our commanders report that the Iraqi forces are operating with increasing effectiveness. As Iraqi forces show they’re capable of keeping the terrorists out, they’re earning the trust and confidence of the Iraqi people, which ensures the success of a free and democratic Iraq.

— President Bush, 9/28/2005 (link found via ThinkProgress)

Maybe the President and his generals might want to consult before making such widely-divergent statements. Or maybe the president’s added zeroes were some kind of clerical error. Nicely done.