1115.org

Via Political Wire comes a report that those titans of political acumen - Senate Democrats - have a plan to focus on five issues during the 2006 campaigns, in what “leaders hope will be a successful repeat of the campaign against President Bush’s plans to overhaul Social Security.” This issues they have chosen:

Someone wake me up in January 2007 when the Senate is swearing in the filibuster-proof Republican majority. Let’s be clear; no one credible is suggesting that Democrats roll out the Red Meat Express complete with Cindy Sheehan, Michael Moore, the head of the Sierra Club and pictures of the President biting the heads off of babies. But the issues Senate Dems think will carry them to victory are more likely to confuse and bore voters to death than get them to 51.

National security has been a consistent loser for Democrats, even for those who have staked out positions more hawkish than the current administration. Prominent Dems like Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and John Kerry have all proposed sending more troops to Iraq, strengthening border and port security, and making capturing or killing Osama bin Laden a priority, to no effect. Voters in this country have seen Republicans as the national security party since at least the Vietnam war, and setting up camp to their right will yield no votes, and worse, carries the risk of alienating some of the Democratic base. This isn’t a call for a more dovish policy; after all, I’ll defer to the one with the most national security experience. But making this the top political priority is asking for trouble. I’m convinced that the Bush administration is looking to use a draw-down of forces in Iraq to influence next year’s election. How will any Democratic national security strategy play in the face of yellow-ribbon parades in every red district across the country?

Like national security, Senate Dems have no consensus on energy policy, with more voting for this year’s toxic energy bill than against it. Of course energy independence is important, but the more financial pain gas prices inflict on voters, the more difficult it is to explain how voting for a $12 billion giveaway to oil companies benefits the average voter. Unless they can come up with a good excuse for not opposing the energy bill and a plan to reduce gas prices, there is no upside to running on energy.

Economic strength, retirement security, and health care however, are issues with which Dems can score some points. But not as naked bullet points coupled with two losing issues. Republicans have used narratives for their biggest electoral wins: Contract with America to end big government in 1994, “restoring honor and dignity” / “compassionate conservatism” in 2000, and “9-11 changed everything” in 2002 and 2004. Narratives beat bullet points every time, and 2006 will be no different. Democrats need to come up with a convincing common thread that runs through each of their strongest (and the Republican’s weakest) issues.

15 months out, consumer confidence and right track/wrong track are at multi-year lows. The response to hurricane Katrina and the proposed methods of reconstruction have finally exposed Republican favoritism of the wealthy and big business. The $200 billion plus price tag to rebuild the Gulf coast has focused attention on the Bush tax cuts, reaching supporters of the President previously deaf to calls for repeal. As more Bush officials (and allies on K Street) go down for corruption, (or even treason) the public will become increasingly skeptical towards the Bush brand of honor and dignity. Each day bin Laden draws breath in a second Bush term damns Republicans for complacency and incompetence.

Certainly things can and will change in the next 15 months. But the Bush administration and Republicans in Congress aren’t going to magically change their stripes and become responsible stewards of the federal government. Economic models accounting for inflation/interest rate hikes, the dollar, slowing productivity gains, and increasing energy prices don’t predict an economy much better next year than this. Between now and next November, Democrats must clarify what is wrong with this country and who is responsible.

What have the Republicans used their time in power to achieve?
What have Republican giveaways to big business done for the average American?
What would happen if you or a loved one was diagnosed with a disease?
What has the war in Iraq done to our military and what has it done to our enemies?

It all boils down to one question: Who is better off now than they were six years ago?

If the Democrats were capable of laying the foundation and repeating this mantra-style as Republicans do with their buzzwords, the message would make it through the static into the heads of voters beginning to see the limits of Republican rule. Dems can nationalize all 468 House and Senate races with a common narrative or they can send their candidates out to campaign with the same laundry list that John Kerry used in 2004.

But then they wouldn’t be losers if they learned from their mistakes.