Of all the complaints we have had about Arnold Schwarzenegger since he won the Governor’s office in late 2003, one of the most pressing was the ego-driven special election he supported. Instead of working with Democrats in the Legislature, Schwarzenegger tried to bypass them entirely by placing his pet initiatives directly on the ballot—never mind that a special election would cost tens of millions of dollars and an actual scheduled election (the 2006 primaries, which could have absorbed any of the Governor’s initiatives without additional cost) was only eight months later. It was a heavy-handed and arrogant maneuver born of impatience and spite, and also one of Arnold’s biggest tests as Governor; a win on the special election front would both demoralize his opponents and likely cement his re-election in 2006.

At least that was the plan. But reality was a bit more harsh. In the few months since the special election was first considered, the Governor’s popularity has plummeted because of a number of ethical complaints, his ugly battles with sympathetic groups such as teachers and nurses, his constant fundraising efforts and what seems like a minefield of broken promises. As for the special election he invested so much political capital into, just last week a judge struck down one of the signature initiatives (a redistricting proposal) and public support for the remaining proposals has been lukewarm at best.

But even with all these trends running against the governor, it was still surprising to open up Saturday’s San Francisco Chronicle and see a front-page story entitled “Governor in Retreat“—a story which reports that the Governor’s people are floating the possibility of canceling the special election altogether.

With the political tide turning against him, dumping the election is the best thing Schwarzenegger could do, said Tony Quinn, a former Republican consultant.

“The governor needs to cancel this special election, regardless of the political cost, because he’s headed for a huge political defeat,” he said. “And he has to do it quickly, because he’s approaching the point of no return. ”

But while polls have shown that voters aren’t happy with the governor’s plan for a special election, he would pay a political price for reversing course.

Whatever Arnold decides to do at this point, it’s likely that his tenure as Governor won’t continue past 2006. One one hand, if he continues with the special election, he runs the risk of spending upwards of $45 million on an embarrassing defeat. If he backs off, he not only looks weak but risks a backlash from members of his own party:

This week’s discussion of a possible pullback on the special election — could have a profound impact on the governor’s GOP base, the loyal troops he’ll depend on in any re-election bid next year.

“The grassroots would not go along with backing away” from the special election,” said Tom Del Beccaro, president of the California Republican Party County Chairs Association, Saturday. “Disappointing would be a mild word. Their hearts in this, and they want it. They’ve been fired up all year. And they’re ready, and we’ve been organizing … the people are going to press ahead. For them, there’s no turning back.”

Unless Schwarzenegger can somehow find a way to thread the needle, odds are that he won’t subject himself to a potentially painful re-election campaign; he’ll find some way to gracefully bow out and go back to making movies and earning endorsements. But for now, he’s in a very difficult position. Even the Democrats—who obviously are reacting to the blood in the water like piranhas—seem willing to go through the election to see Arnold hang himself with his own rope:

Even if the governor proposed calling the election off, it’s unclear whether the Legislature would go along.

In a twist that shows just how much political fortunes seem to have changed, Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez, who has been critical of the election, indicated Friday he would not be in favor of canceling the vote.

“The toothpaste is out of the tube, and it will be hard to put it back in, ” Núñez said.

As much as I’ve disagreed with the Governor on numerous issues, this kind of statement from the Democrats make me think that they are more interested in hurting Schwarzenegger politically than doing what is best for the state. If California can avoid spending millions of dollars by canceling the election, than it should be cancelled without a second thought—the Democratic party gains little at this point by being vindictive, as Arnold seems quite able to damage his image without outside help.

Unlike in the movies, there’s rarely a deus ex machina in politics—a lession which Arnold Schwarzenegger is learning by the day.