1115.org

Civilization is so littered with failure that those who enjoy even a fleeting measure of success are usually afforded wide latitude in subsequent endeavors. I’m permanently fascinated with people’s responses to victory and defeat, whether in politics, business, entertainment or life itself.

In 2000, George W. Bush ran for President on a very simple platform of “restoring honor and dignity to the White House,” tax cuts, and a promise of “straight talk.” His ability to stick to his core message and appeal to voters who told pollsters they would like to share a beer with him earned him a win in a disputed election. After eight months of floundering, Bush seized the initiative in the wake of 9-11, conflating every issue with terrorism, and meeting every problem with calls for more tax cuts. For the remainder of his first term, Bush followed the script and won nearly every battle with his domestic opponents, defying history by winning a second term despite spending much of 2004 below the crucial 50% approval rating.

In 2003, three years after an election which many feel was stolen, and just a year after mid-term Congressional elections which saw particularly dishonest and dirty campaigning, Californians endured a recall election. Republican Congressman Darrel Issa, thinking that he had an opportunity to become governor of California funded a signature drive to force the recall of Gray Davis. When polling data exposed weakness in all declared candidates, Arnold Schwarzenegger jumped into the race and changed everything. Without a need to introduce himself, (name recognition in the 90s will take care of that) Schwarzenegger focused on selling a message of reform that capitalized on the mood that brought on the recall in the first place. His campaign was lethally effective in message and method. Each attack and public appearance made the state’s condition appear more dire and Schwarzenegger’s solutions more attractive. In a blue state getting bluer, Republican Schwarzenegger was seen by a majority as the one man able to save California. In his first campaign, Schwarzenegger won in a walk, with the resulting popularity lasting over a year into his term.

Just a few months ago, Bush was celebrating his reelection and Republican gains in both the House and Senate. His aggressive agenda included Social Security privatization, long called the “third rail of American politics” for the danger it posed to anyone wishing to alter one of the most enduring programs in U.S. history. Claiming a Man Date, Bush forged ahead counting on acquiescence from a demoralized Democratic minority who had just lost their leader with Tom Daschle’s loss.

Schwarzenegger continued picking fights with anyone who didn’t offer their full support, or at least their silence. His campaign promises to “take on the special interests” became a perverse joke as he took money from big business and lobbyists and pushed for cuts from state employees and more importantly teachers and nurses. His top priority was to change the state employee pension system in a way that would remove the guaranteed retirement plan promised to police and firemen. Facing angry opposition majorities in both houses of the state legislature, Schwarzenegger changed the game by declaring that if the state representatives wouldn’t give him what he wants, he’d call a special election packed with ballot initiatives and campaign full time for their passage.

Seemingly out of nowhere, opposition materialized. Bush was enjoying his highest approval ratings since the capture of Saddam Hussein and Schwarzenegger was near the highs of his time in office. But neither man could translate personal appeal into success when it meant a fundamental change in the safety net for retirees. D.C. Democrats and their supporters exposed Bush’s privatization scheme for the inherently risky and debt-laden house of cards that it was while California labor unions rallied support for their fight against Schwarzenegger by running ads undercutting his proposed overhaul.

Bush tried to fight back with a “60 Stops in 60 Days” campaign-style tour that is costing taxpayers millions, but the net results are his lowest approval ratings since before 9-11 and a privatization plan that is dead in the water. Schwarzenegger tried to bully his way past the teachers and nurses, calling them “special interests,” a questionable strategy for a man in bed with Indian casinos, big business and other actual special interests. He is paying a huge price in polling for these mistakes, and San Francisco has become outright enemy territory (See Swing State Project and SFist for his latest and possibly last trip to the Bay.) His dip in the polls and constant pressure from the unions led to a retreat on his pension overhaul plan on Thursday.

Bush and Schwarzenegger each misjudged the power of their respective cults of personality. They made political calculations that were not just wrong, but damaging. As politicians who depend on an aura of invincibility, any loss can be crippling. The Democratic party hadn’t had a significant win in years, but now they remember what it feels like, just in time for the upcoming judicial nominations fight. Democrats in California, embarrassed by losing the governor’s mansion just a year after successfully defending it can count on a revitalized union presence that may set an example for national unions.

There are many lessons to be learned from battles like this, not the least of which is knowing your strengths and playing to them. Both Bush and Schwarzenegger rose to power on bumper-sticker campaigns: No policy more than 6 words long. Their mistake wasn’t necessarily going after a hard target, but picking a complicated one like retirement schemes. They have each walked into their own little minefield: Bush has four years left to govern, which is a long time when you smell like a lame duck, and Schwarzenegger must run for reelection next year in an increasingly hostile state. They are skilled politicians, but not so skilled that they should be digging holes. Luckily for our side, that’s exactly where they find themselves now.