And the Winner Is…

by matt at 12:36 am on October 1st, 2004 in Politics

“All the doubters and believers
adjust your receivers.” Mos Def- ‘Speed Law’

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Wonder what the media thinks…colossal error?

First round TKO to John Kerry. While the President managed to remain upright (probably due to the lack of pretzels and Segway scooters on-stage), Kerry had him on tilt from the second question, leading to a series of grimaces, eye rolls, head shakes that made Al Gore’s sighs look insignificant.

While Kerry didn’t win the election based on his performance last night, he did clearly win the debate (no matter what Sean Hannity was babbling about.) Losing the foreign policy (his supposed strength) debate puts Bush in a tough spot. With a disastrous domestic record and discomfort answering questions from anyone who hasn’t recently signed a loyalty oath, the President is going to have to spend the next few weeks back in debate prep.

And speaking of debate prep, Team Kerry (I’m looking at you Joe Lockhart) had their candidate ready and steady. Kerry had full command of the facts and, in a pleasant surprise, abandoned his wordy ways in favor of a direct, frank, and clear style that allowed him to appear strong and smart at the same time. I’m sure I speak for a majority of Kerry supporters when I say that it was refreshing to see him living up to our expectations on the highest stage.

Contrast that with a performance by the President that, if he weren’t already President, would probably have resulted in a 10 point drop in the polls. I’m not sure what Bush did at his debate prep, but if it included preparing for the debate we should all be afraid. Very afraid.

Shorter President Bush: “Being President is a hard job. My opponent doesn’t support the troops. No homo. The President can’t send mixed signals. Wash. Rinse. Repeat 7x.” When the panel on Fox News concludes that you ran out of material halfway through, you have a problem.

We’ve heard from the media for years now that people don’t as much listen to debates as watch the body language and demeanor of the participants. I’ve always been uncomfortable with that conclusion because it reveals the laziest tendencies of the American people: Don’t think, just look at the pictures. Conventional wisdom (not something we traffic in here) predicted a Bush win on body language. After all, that’s largely how he won the debates in 2000. But by any measure, Kerry looked significantly more Presidential. By comparison, Bush looked like a petulant child who was trying to convince his parents that he didn’t break a window.

It’s interesting that the President’s strategy (to the extent that he had one) was derived from his “Ask President Bush” campaign stops, where he answers pre-screened questions before a rapt crowd of true believers. Whoever decided that this was a good idea should have their decision-making authority revoked. The reason that the President has held less press conferences than any other President in modern times is that he can’t think on his feet and doesn’t react well to criticism. This was on full display last night. Add to that an opponent who knows how to play and you have a disaster.

The result was clearly a President on the defensive at the hands of a man his campaign has spent $200 million painting as weak and indecisive.

The commentary and analysis will go on for the next few days, and no doubt some people will talk themselves into the idea that it was a wash or even that the President won. A quick trip through the video will fix that.

Bottom line: Kerry looked Presidential, demonstrated knowledge of all the issues and communicated in an effective manner. The President acted like he would have rather been anywhere else, gave the same exact answer to several questions and made some strange faces.

Final score: Kerry 85, Bush 55.

Trackbacks & Pings

  1. hiphopmusic.com on 01 Oct 2004 at 10:32 am

    Other Takes on the Debate
    I didn’t want to get my hopes up, cuz I always keep myself in an assume-the-worst posture during these elections, but I guess we now have a consensus that Bush got straight Roy-Jonesed last night. Even Limbaugh is totally conceding…

  2. Tim's Reflection Connection on 03 Oct 2004 at 11:52 am

    Yes, I’m Rubbing It In…

    While the President managed to remain upright (probably due to the lack of pretzels and Segway scooters on-stage), Kerry had him on tilt from the second question, leading to a series of grimaces, eye rolls, head shakes that made Al Gore ’s sighs lo…

Comments

  1. screwtape wrote:

    Unfortunately, what will matter more is how the outcome is spun over the next week. I think Karl was planning for that far more than the debate since it matters so much more.

    Posted 01 Oct 2004 at 4:47 am

  2. ian wrote:

    I can’t see how they can spin this in any meaningful way. Kerry really looked good and was on point.

    Posted 01 Oct 2004 at 6:58 am

  3. matt d wrote:

    I think the Bushies strategy was simple: Don’t let him say too much. Granted, interest in this debate is much higher than in recent elections, but the tendency is for the vast majority of viewers to tune out after the first half hour. So, if he ran out of steam after 30 minutes and just repeated himself for the rest of the debate, it really doesn’t matter because the quotes still look good on the evening news.

    These debates aren’t scored, they’re spun.

    Posted 01 Oct 2004 at 7:23 am

  4. btezra wrote:

    ~the opening paragraph had me laughing, almost gasping for air, then you threw in “Bush looked like a petulant child who was trying to convince his parents that he didn’t break a window” and you could not be closer to the truth/reality of last night…Kerry looked more Presidential last night, did not ‘ramble on’ as he had a tendency to do in the past, his answers were concise, to the point and actually answered questions put forth to him, Bush on the other hand dodged and ran from answering most if not all the questions put forth, relying on repetition and playing on the fears of the viewers, his go it alone strategy is a loser, his failed actions in Iraq are looming large, and his commending Kerry for his service downplayed any bullshit lies about his service in Vietnam that have caused him harm in the pools. The split screens of the two of them revealed a perturbed Bush, an anxious man with no poise. He truly lost the visual portion of the debate, the audible part was never in question…I CANNOT WAIT for the domestic policy debate, the final stake in the heart of his re-selection hopes and dreams. Xlnt post, as always~

    *wonder what the odds are in Vegas NOW on Bush pulling bin Laden out of his hat just before the election

    Posted 01 Oct 2004 at 8:06 am

  5. Will wrote:

    Concerning Bush’s strategy (at least for the first part of the “debate”), I thought the he must have trained with the lights in mind. When he was given any amount of time to respond, he would stumble with his elocution as he is wont to do, but once the green light went on, he changed his presentation. He tried to look directly into the camera forcefully, implement some sort of gesture, then spewed some sort of a soundbite statement. The purpose seemed to be, delay his response to limit any possible mistakes, and at the green light stick to the campaign rhetoric soundbites.

    I thought that they must have figured that most people, especially his supporters, would ignore the previous stumbling and just be impressed by his forceful rendering of the soundbite. I actually thought he must have rehearsed it. Green light, GO!

    Posted 01 Oct 2004 at 9:48 am

  6. Sam wrote:

    At this point, I want to trust in ABC political correspondant George Stephananaotuaghapghagalois who said that even though the poll said the debate did little to change people’s minds, there are lots of folks out there who didn’t yet know who John Kerry was or what he stood for.

    Ultimately, Kerry won the debate and said things we’ve been dying for him to say——that last bit about being certain and being wrong was important, I just wish he’d said it this way:

    There’s a difference between being someone who wavers and someone who contemplates major decisions, a difference between being arrogant, smug and hard-headed and being patient and thoughtful. It’s much more important to have a leader who does the latter.

    I also think it was extremely significant to see Bush in the split screen while Kerry was talking. Much of the time Bush looked perturbed, even angry. People need to see that. It’s the only glimpse we ever get of his petulant side; it’s the only time we really see how he behaves in the moment, and it’s telling.

    What has to happen now is that Kerry builds on this, and if he really mashes Bush in the next one, and we might just see movement in the polls.

    Posted 01 Oct 2004 at 9:48 am

  7. Nicole wrote:

    Kerry was the clear winner. My one concern (and growing with every mindless blog or article I see) is that Kerry didn’t ‘dumb down’ his answers enough for a majority of the people watching. You had to actually THINK about his answers and his points - which we sadly know many people in this country are not prone to doing. Are there honestly people that think Bush’s “Because I said so.” policy is a good one? That think the rest of the world should just ‘fall in line’ with his wishes like we have? Nice fantasy, except the rest of the world isn’t as easy to fool as we obviously are. And viewing Bush’s performance last night - is this the man you want speaking on your behalf to leaders of other nations? I think it’s time we had someone with a brain in office, not just an ego.

    Posted 01 Oct 2004 at 1:39 pm

  8. Karl wrote:

    Just found your blog on a surf from Pie’s web page and wanted to say thank you for your insight. It’s been a pleasure to read what you have to say.

    Posted 01 Oct 2004 at 10:11 pm

  9. Tim wrote:

    You nailed it!

    Posted 03 Oct 2004 at 11:57 am

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