1115.org

Today marks 99 days until the general election. What have you done to defeat George W. Bush today? The 10% of the country that has not been paying attention up ’til now will be greeted with an onslaught of coverage in all media.

We’re almost at the point where polls start to matter, but as everyone was reminded in 2000, national polls are for entertainment only. State-by-state numbers are where the game is played, and there is cautiously good news in the swing states for supporters of John Kerry.

The LA Times has some interesting data about voters impressions and opinions on the candidates. Even though the national numbers are very close, it does seem like the majority have made up their mind about Bush, but have yet to do so about Kerry. In real terms, barring a major game-changing event, this means that the race is Kerry’s to lose. Or Bush’s to steal.

One of the most accurate predictors of vote share, the Iowa Electronic Markets national election numbers slightly favor Kerry after tilting heavily for Bush just a month ago.

WritersAct has a great interactive java app to calculate specific electoral outcomes.

(Click on thumbnails for full-size maps)

The map on the left shows a very plausible scenario for a Kerry win. While I was experimenting, I happened upon the very real possibility of an electoral tie (map on right.) You don’t want to know what happens then, but I’ll tell toy anyway: the U.S. House of Representatives decides who is President while the U.S. Senate decides who is Vice President.

The Democratic National Convention starting today has the potential to give Kerry a significant lead and put serious pressure on the Bush campaign. If the main speakers Barack Obama, Al Gore, Bill Clinton, John Edwards, and most importantly Kerry can nail their speeches then the Democrats will leave Boston with a lead of 7-9%.

Wall to wall coverage can be seen on all the cable networks, but smart viewers will avoid the spin and watch on C-SPAN.