Cutting and Running
by matt at 6:10 am on May 20th, 2004 in
Bush Man Date,
Iraq War
While we’re all still waiting for my last predictions to come true, he’s another to add to the list:
Despite all the Texas cowboy talk from the President, we will cut and run from Iraq shortly after the much-hyped June handoff of sovereignty.
Why?
Whoever takes control after the handoff must immediately put significant distance between themselves and the U.S.
To keep things in Iraq calm, we need many more troops than we have available. Sending more troops would be logistically difficult and politically risky, so the administration will not make the effort nor take the risk.
There is very little political downside to pulling out. Americans want their boys and girls back, so a charge of flip-flopping won’t stick. The rest of the world will criticize us, but with the current anti-international climate in this country, that would actually be a positive for the administration.
Less troops getting killed will stop the President’s free fall in the polls.
The Iraq war was politics all the way. Now that it is hurting the President’s chances rather than helping, this will come to a close quickly.
Pulling out would force John Kerry to the right, and drive a wedge between Kerry and his critics in the anti-war left.
Bol wrote:
Yeah, probably. I see they’re already starting to lay the groundwork, talking about “If they ask us to leave, we’re gone.”
Posted 20 May 2004 at 6:12 am ¶
Bol wrote:
You know, as if we give a rat’s ass what people ask us to do.
Posted 20 May 2004 at 6:14 am ¶
jen wrote:
hmm… i haven’t been reading this site for long, but where’s the prediction that we’ll find bin laden before the election?
smart money’s on the week before the election, but i’m thinking a bit earlier in october.
anyone got money on september? november 8th? anyone?
Posted 20 May 2004 at 1:08 pm ¶
matt wrote:
I only make predictions that have longer odds than your average everyday sure thing.
Posted 20 May 2004 at 1:11 pm ¶
Milo wrote:
Yup, they make sense. Except I think you’re undermining pulling out of the war, especially on the verge of an election where withdrawing troops would mean Bush contradicts a couple years of his president run. Then though, while Mommy and Daddy soldier are giddy and playful that their child is home, they ironically thank Dubya for returning their seeds, saying “hey, he wasn’t so bad afterall,” and give him another term. That’s my prediction, and that’s a huge political downside. Oh yeah, along with the term “Stupid American,” being now concrete in errybody’s head.
I think withdrawing troops would have a lesser consequence than prolonging the war. Still, we’re in somewhat of a catch-22.
Milo
Posted 22 May 2004 at 6:18 am ¶