Hard Numbers

Posted by on . 8 comments.

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That’s not a pretty picture

“If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, do you think you would probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?”

George W. Bush…………49%
Democratic Candidate….40%

“If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and Howard Dean, the Democrat, do you think you would vote for George W. Bush or Howard Dean?”

George W. Bush….55%
Howard Dean…….35%

As important as the total numbers is the independent vote which Bush wins 57% to 28%. This should terrify Dems and wake up some of the Dean apostles.

Numbers courtesy of PollingReport.com

Comments

  1. Matt says:
    December 24, 2003 at 6:46 am

    To be fair, these sorts of polls taken before a single primary vote can’t be taken too seriously. At this point you’ve still got a heck of a lot of people outside of NH and Iowa who hardly know who’s running, let alone the finer points of their positions. It’s very easy to pick Bush when asked if you haven’t begun seriously considering anyone else.

    The 40% – 49% result is more significant, and given the margin of error means we’re probably right back where we were in 2000, split down the middle.

    I’m in NH, by the way, and don’t have a clue yet who I’m going to vote for in the primary. And I’m honestly not sure what any of the candidates could say that would sway me to their side (they can certainly say things that would sway me against them — Clark’s flag burning amendment comment didn’t help).

  2. matt says:
    December 24, 2003 at 6:58 am

    The independent number makes it grim. Obviously no one has voted yet, but until they do, i’ll rely on the polls.
    The fact that Dean’s number is lower than the generic Dem given all the press he get shouls worry Dems. Dean has all the support he’s going to get.

    If that’s your only bitch about Clark, I’d suggest going to his site and reading his plans. Or pick up his book Winning Modern Wars.

  3. jamie says:
    December 24, 2003 at 7:18 am

    I fear I’m back where I was in 2000. . .theatening to move to Canada. I realize that’s reactionary and inflamatory, but what you say, 1st Matt, is really what’s at the heart of the matter for me – people outside of NH SHOULD know what’s going on. If they don’t know already, then they are going to let the press decide for them and that’s a scary scary thing.

  4. Matt says:
    December 24, 2003 at 11:18 am

    matt: I’ve done my research, and Clark is at the top of my list for the moment, flag burning aside. Dean’s got plenty of good ideas, and while his tone is refreshing and shores up the base I’m not sure it’s going to bring in the independents. That said, I expect that if he gets the nomination we’ll see him tone down the rhetoric and play up his non-liberal side. He’d better back off on reversing all, rather than most, of the Bush tax cuts, though. That’s a total loser.

    Jamie: In an abstract sense, you’re right, people should be paying attention to the candidates now. But realistically, they probably save their close scrutiny for the weeks before their state’s primary. Keep in mind, after NH and Iowa we’ll probably see half of the candidates drop out. So, rightly or not, people do wait to see who the top two or three are before beginning the decision making process.

    Things can change so freaking fast. Clinton was nobody until right before NH in 1992. And if something blows up in this country in the next week or so, all bets are off.

  5. matt says:
    December 24, 2003 at 11:35 am

    Well put.

    The problem with toning down the rhetoric is that he’s already given Karl Rove enough material for 3 campaigns worth of ads. He’s boxed himself in with his own words and actions, with the major one being the tax cuts.

    I’ve never understood people’s need to vote for the guy who is going to win. It’s not like you get an ambassadorship for voting for the winner.

    If something blows up (and i have money on that happening before the election, really) the admin will point to the statements that they have made since 9-11 saying that we will get hit again. That plus they will blame it on the dissenting opinions from dems giving “aid and comfort” to the enemy. They’ve done that already.

    Clinto won because he was a brillian politician for the most part. Also Ross Perot. Dean is neither a brillian politician (he’s really only played one note this whole time) nor will he have a populist to siphon off votes from bush.

    Keep us posted on what’s going on in NH. I wish I got to vote before the primary’s been decided, but I’ll go out anyway and vote for Clark no matter what.

  6. tom says:
    December 24, 2003 at 12:13 pm

    shouldnt dean’s number be lower than the generic dem number? i mean at least a few of those dems polled have to want to vote for someone other than dean in the primary. that doesnt mean they wont vote for him when he gets the nomination.

    and as far as sound bites for campaign ads, i think any dem has years worth of footage of bush saying dumb shit to work with.

  7. matt says:
    December 24, 2003 at 12:33 pm

    It wasn’t a primary question. It was who would you vote for if it was Dean v Bush. Other candidates weren’t a factor.

    Kerry and Clark both do better in head to head polling with Bush.

    Watch how well soundbites of Bush do for the Dems. Watch.

  8. flag burning says:
    December 13, 2004 at 8:29 pm

    I don’t know about you all, but I have never burned a flag, and see no reason to do so. Nevertheless, the day that flag burning becomes illegal, I will burn a flag in protest.